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Abstract Climate change manifestation in the ocean, through warming, oxygen loss, increasing acidification, and changing particulate organic carbon flux (one metric of altered food supply), is projected to affect most deep‐ocean ecosystems concomitantly with increasing direct human disturbance. Climate drivers will alter deep‐sea biodiversity and associated ecosystem services, and may interact with disturbance from resource extraction activities or even climate geoengineering. We suggest that to ensure the effective management of increasing use of the deep ocean (e.g., for bottom fishing, oil and gas extraction, and deep‐seabed mining), environmental management and developing regulations must consider climate change. Strategic planning, impact assessment and monitoring, spatial management, application of the precautionary approach, and full‐cost accounting of extraction activities should embrace climate consciousness. Coupled climate and biological modeling approaches applied in the water and on the seafloor can help accomplish this goal. For example, Earth‐System Model projections of climate‐change parameters at the seafloor reveal heterogeneity in projected climate hazard and time of emergence (beyond natural variability) in regions targeted for deep‐seabed mining. Models that combine climate‐induced changes in ocean circulation with particle tracking predict altered transport of early life stages (larvae) under climate change. Habitat suitability models can help assess the consequences of altered larval dispersal, predict climate refugia, and identify vulnerable regions for multiple species under climate change. Engaging the deep observing community can support the necessary data provisioning to mainstream climate into the development of environmental management plans. To illustrate this approach, we focus on deep‐seabed mining and the International Seabed Authority, whose mandates include regulation of all mineral‐related activities in international waters and protecting the marine environment from the harmful effects of mining. However, achieving deep‐ocean sustainability under the UN Sustainable Development Goals will require integration of climate consideration across all policy sectors.
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This content will become publicly available on April 10, 2026
Well pad-level geospatial differences in the carbon footprint and direct land use change impacts of natural gas extraction
Thorough accounting of the climate change impacts of natural gas is crucial to guide the energy transition towards climate change mitigation, as even decarbonization roadmaps project continued natural gas use into the future. The climate change impacts of natural gas extraction have not previously been assessed at the well pad level, accounting for a multitude of geospatial differences between individual pads. Well pads constructed across a varied landscape lead to a range of well pad areas, earth flattening needs, well pad lifetimes, total gas production, and direct land use change (DLUC) effects such as loss of original biomass, soil organic carbon loss, change in net primary productivity, and altering the surface albedo of the site. Using existing well pad data, machine learning techniques, and satellite imagery, the spatial extents of thousands of well pads in New Mexico were delineated for site-specific data collection. A parametric life cycle assessment (LCA) model of natural gas-producing well pads was developed to integrate geospatial differences and DLUC effects, yielding scenario analysis results for each identified well pad. The DLUC effects contributed a median of 14.4% and a maximum of 59.0% to natural gas extraction carbon footprints. The use of well pad-level data revealed that the carbon footprint of natural gas extraction ranges across orders of magnitude, from 0.016 to 46.4 g CO2eq per MJ. The results highlight the need to quantify the climate change impacts of establishing a well pad and extracting natural gas case-by-case, with geographically specific data, to guide new installations towards lower emissions.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2316124
- PAR ID:
- 10616918
- Publisher / Repository:
- RSC
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Energy Advances
- Volume:
- 4
- Issue:
- 4
- ISSN:
- 2753-1457
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 536 to 552
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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