An official website of the United States government
This study analyzes which communities adopted flood risk management practices during the past 25 years. In particular, we focus on community-scale flood management efforts undertaken voluntarily in towns and counties across the United States. In 1990, the US Federal Emergency Management Agency created the Community Rating System (CRS) to provide incentives to local governments to improve flood resilience. About 1,300 counties and cities voluntarily participate in the CRS, but most eligible communities do not participate. Here, we explore the factors shaping community CRS participation, such as flood risk, socio-economic characteristics, and economic resources, and we assess the competing phenomena of policy diffusion versus free riding. Previous models of community-scale flood mitigation activities have all considered each community’s decision as independent of one another. Yet one community’s flood management activities might directly or indirectly influence its neighbors’ mitigation efforts. Spillover effects or “contagion” may arise if neighboring communities learn from or seek to emulate or outcompete early adopting neighbors. Conversely, stricter regulation in one community may allow its neighbors to capitalize on looser regulation either by attracting more development or enjoying reduced “downstream” flood risks. This paper presents a conceptual model that allows for multiple forces affecting diffusion, such as copycatting and learning from neighboring communities, free-riding on neighbors’ efforts, and competing with neighbors to provide valuable amenities. We empirically test for these alternative diffusion pathways after controlling for the spatially correlated extant flood risks, building patterns, and demographics. The analysis integrates several large datasets to predict community flood risk management for all cities and counties in the US since 1990. Controls for local flood risk combined with a spatial lag regression model allow separate identification of alternative diffusion pathways. The results indicate strong evidence of copycatting and also suggest possible free-riding.
more »
« less
This content will become publicly available on June 2, 2026
Do cities with greater transformative governance capacity pursue more ambitious policies? Examining U.S. cities through the lens of climate resiliency
Municipalities face increasingly complex challenges from climate change-driven natural hazards that threaten health, infrastructure, and livelihoods. Addressing these risks requires ambitious climate policies that drive the societal transformations advocated in climate policy literature. This study examines factors enabling local governments to adopt ambitious flood risk management. Ambitious climate adaptation policies go beyond minimum regulatory requirements to reduce climate vulnerability and enhance resilience. They facilitate their community’s ability to bounce forward after confronting system disruptions and shocks. Given the dynamic nature of climate challenges, scholars emphasize the importance of having a capacity for transformation over achieving fixed outcomes. Accordingly, this study hypothesizes that city governments with higher Transformative Governance Capacity (TGC) are more likely to implement ambitious flood management strategies. TGC is characterized by behavioural qualities such as being learning-focused, proactive, and risk-accepting. Using survey data from 386 U.S. cities, we operationalize and quantify local governments’ TGC and analyze its association with ambitious flood management practices, as proxied by participation in the Community Rating System (CRS) – a voluntary programme that incentivizes communities to exceed national flood mitigation standards. The findings support the hypothesis that greater TGC is associated with higher levels of involvement in the CRS and higher CRS scores, underscoring the importance of this distinct type of behavioural capacity in addressing escalating climate threats.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 2049917
- PAR ID:
- 10617019
- Publisher / Repository:
- Taylor & Francis
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Climate Policy
- ISSN:
- 1469-3062
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1 to 15
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
The Community Rating System (CRS) program was implemented by the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) in 1990 as an optional program to encourage communities to voluntarily engage in flood mitigation initiatives. This article uses national census tract-level data from 1980 to 2010 to estimate whether CRS participation and flood risk affect a community's local patterns of population change. We employ an instrumental-variables strategy to address the potential endogeneity of CRS participation, based on community-scale demographic factors that predict when a tract’s host community joins the CRS. The results find significant effects of the CRS program and flood risk on population change. Taken together, the findings point to greater propensity for community-scale flood management in areas with more newcomers and programs such as CRS stabilizing population, though not especially in flood- prone areas. We observe the CRS neither displacing population toward lower-risk areas nor attracting more people to flood-prone areas.more » « less
-
Abstract Avoiding floodplain development is critical for limiting flood damage, yet there is little empirical evidence of how local governments effectively avoid floodplain development. We conduct a mixed-methods study to explain how local floodplain management influences floodplain development in New Jersey, a state with high development pressure and flood risk. We find that 85% of towns developed relatively little in the floodplain from 2001 to 2019, and they achieved this with commonplace land use management tools and modest levels of local government capacity. One hundred twenty-six New Jersey towns put none of their new housing in the floodplain 2001–2019. Our findings run counter to common reports of rampant floodplain development requiring legal innovation and capacity-building campaigns and suggest alternative approaches for promoting floodplain avoidance. We find multiple paths to floodplain avoidance, weak support for previously identified drivers, and strong evidence that the keys to avoidance include having a few high-quality tools that are well-implemented, requiring consistency, coordination, and commitment of local officials. The multiple paths and importance of maximum, rather than average, quality might explain the mixed evidence in prior research connecting floodplain management actions and development outcomes. A lack of attention to towns that limit floodplain development impedes our ability to learn from and disseminate their successes. Contrary to our expectations, we show that floodplain avoidance can be and is achieved through routine municipal practices. Our findings underscore the importance of sustained commitment to development management as a core tool for limiting flood risk.more » « less
-
Floods remain the most destructive natural hazard worldwide. Understanding and improving flood management at the community scale (i.e., levels larger than the individual or household, but smaller than regions, states, or nations) is important in order to reduce communities’ vulnerability to floods. The growing literature examining flood management at the community scale has not emphasized analysis of the impacts of a flood-risk management policy on migration and development. We contribute new evidence on the impact of the Community Ratings System (CRS), a community scale federal program, on migration and development in the United States. The CRS program was created in 1990 to enable communities to voluntarily reduce flood risks, and in return, receive discounted flood insurance premiums. Using panel data (1970–2010), the study estimates fixed-effects regressions with robust standard errors clustered by group. The results indicate that the CRS discourages new construction and the construction of mobile homes or trailers in participating communities. Also, the CRS discourages population growth, but encourages people to stay in CRS participating communities. The study will benefit both academics and practitioners by helping to illuminate the impact of the CRS on migration and development, and improve our understanding of community-scale flood risk management.more » « less
-
Abstract Reservoirs are designed and operated to mitigate hydroclimatic variability and extremes to fulfill various beneficial purposes. Existing reservoir infrastructure capacity and operation policies derived from historical records are challenged by hydrologic regime change and storage reduction from sedimentation. Furthermore, climate change could amplify the water footprint of reservoir operation (i.e. non-beneficial evaporative loss), further influencing the complex interactions among hydrologic variability, reservoir characteristics, and operation decisions. Disentangling and quantifying these impacts is essential to assess the effectiveness of reservoir operation under future climate and identify the opportunities for adaptive reservoir management (e.g. storage reallocation). Using reservoirs in Texas as a testing case, this study develops data-driven models to represent the current reservoir operation policies and assesses the challenges and opportunities in flood control and water supply under dynamically downscaled climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. We find that current policies are robust in reducing future flood risks by eliminating small floods, reducing peak magnitude, and extending the duration for large floods. Current operation strategies can effectively reduce the risk of storage shortage for many reservoirs investigated, but reservoir evaporation and sedimentation pose urgent needs for revisions in the current guidelines to enhance system resilience. We also identify the opportunities for reservoir storage reallocation through seasonal-varying conservation pool levels to improve water supply reliability with negligible flood risk increase. This study provides a framework for stakeholders to evaluate the effectiveness of the current reservoir operation policy under future climate through the interactions among hydroclimatology, reservoir infrastructure, and operation policy.more » « less
