An official website of the United States government
Abstract The impacts of climate change on Arctic marine systems are noticeable within the scientific “lifetime” of most researchers and the iconic image of a polar bear struggling to stay on top of a melting ice floe captures many of the dominant themes of Arctic marine ecosystem change. But has our focus on open‐ocean systems and parameters that are more easily modeled and sensed remotely neglected an element that is responding more dramatically and with broader implications for Arctic ecosystems? We argue that a complementary set of changes to the open ocean is occurring along Arctic coasts, amplified by the interaction with changes on land and in the sea. We observe an increased number of ecosystem drivers with larger implications for the ecological and human communities they touch than are quantifiable in the open Arctic Ocean. Substantial knowledge gaps exist that must be filled to support adaptation and sustainability of socioecological systems along Arctic coasts.
more »
« less
Future Arctic Marine Navigation: Complexity and Uncertainties
Many uncertainties and a complex suite of drivers of change are influencing the future of Arctic marine operations and commercial shipping. Most notably, the well-documented reduction of Arctic sea ice extent and thickness and the transition from thick, multi-year to seasonal, first-year ice are profound responses to anthropogenic climate change. The Arctic Ocean is becoming more navigable, with greater marine access now attained in most regions. The possibilities for longer seasons of marine navigation during spring, summer, and autumn are real, but the vision of new, year-round (routine) Arctic shipping that could alter global trade routes remains highly implausible. Arctic shipping remains largely destinational, with ships traveling into the Arctic Ocean to conduct an economic activity (Lasserre, 2019).
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 2022571
- PAR ID:
- 10617084
- Publisher / Repository:
- The Oceanography Society
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Oceanography
- ISSN:
- 1042-8275
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Marine access in the Arctic Ocean is increasing due to the relentless retreat of sea ice driven by anthropogenic climate change. Longer seasons of marine navigation allow increasing marine use by a diversity of stakeholders and vessels. Progress has been made in protecting the Arctic Ocean through cooperation among the Arctic States and proactive advances within international organizations, notably the International Maritime Organization. Measures addressing Arctic marine safety and environmental protection have been developed and adopted. This paper reviews 12 strategies or pathways forward for implementing policy measures developed in an array of organizations to protect the future Arctic Ocean. Ten high priority recommendations, all near-term action items that are believed achievable, are also advanced toward protecting Arctic people and the marine environment in the twenty-first century.more » « less
-
Abstract Recent climate change has caused declines in ice coverage which have lengthened the open water season in the Arctic and increased access to resources and shipping routes. These changes have resulted in more vessel activity in seasonally ice-covered regions. While traffic is increasing in the ice-free season, the amount of vessel activity in the marginal ice zone (ice concentration 15–80%) or in pack ice (>80% concentration) remains unclear. Understanding patterns of vessel activities in ice is important given increased safety challenges and environmental impacts. Here, we couple high-resolution ship tracking information with sea ice thickness and concentration data to quantify vessel activity in ice-covered areas of the Pacific Arctic (northern Bering, Chukchi, and western Beaufort Seas). This region is a geo-strategically critical area that contains globally important commercial fisheries and serves as a corridor for Arctic access for wildlife and vessels. We find that vessel traffic in the marginal ice zone is widely distributed across the study area while vessel traffic in pack ice is concentrated along known shipping routes and in areas of natural resource development. Of the statistically significant relationships between vessel traffic and both sea ice concentration and thickness, over 99% are negative, indicating that increasing sea ice is associated with decreasing vessel traffic on a monthly time scale. Furthermore, there is substantial vessel traffic in areas of high concentration for bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus), and traffic in these areas increased four-fold during the study period. Fishing vessels dominate vessel traffic at low ice concentrations, but vessels categorized as Other, likely icebreakers, are the most common vessel type in pack ice. These findings indicate that vessel traffic in areas of ice coverage is influenced by distant policy and resource development decisions which should be taken into consideration when trying to predict future vessel-ice interactions in a changing climate.more » « less
-
Abstract We use a modern Earth system model to approximate the relative importance of ice versus temperature on Arctic marine ecosystem dynamics. We show that while the model adequately simulates ice volume, water temperature, air‐sea CO2flux, and annual primary production in the Arctic, itunderestimates upper water column nitrate across the region. This nitrate bias is likely responsible for the apparent underestimation of ice algae production. Despite this shortcoming, the model appears to be a useful tool for exploring the impacts of environmental change on phytoplankton production and carbon dynamics over the Arctic Ocean. Our experiments indicate that under a warmer climate scenario, the percentage of ocean warming that could be apportioned to a reduction in ice area ranged from 11% to 100%, while decreasing ice area could account for 22–100% of the increase in annual ocean primary production. The change to CO2air‐sea flux in response to ice and temperature changes averaged an Arctic‐wide 5.5 Tg C yr−1(3.5%) increase, into the ocean. This increased carbon sink may be short‐lived, as ice cover continues to decrease and the ocean warms. The change in carbon fixation from phytoplankton in response to increased temperatures and reduced ice was generally more than a magnitude larger than the changes to CO2flux, highlighting the importance of fully considering changes to the marine ecosystem when assessing Arctic carbon cycle dynamics. Our work demonstrates the importance of ice dynamics in controlling ocean warming and production and thus the need for well‐behaved ice and BGC models within Earth system models if we hope to accurately predict Arctic changes.more » « less
-
Arctic marine primary productivity (the conversion of dissolved inorganic carbon into organic material by photosynthetic organisms) forms the foundation of the marine food web and plays a critical role in global carbon cycling. It is highly sensitive to changes in sea ice cover (see essay Sea Ice), ocean temperature (see essay Sea Surface Temperature), and nutrient availability, all of which are altered by ongoing climate change. Marine primary productivity in the Arctic varies significantly across different regions, influenced by local oceanographic conditions and the timing of sea ice retreat.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2022.136
