An official website of the United States government
Abstract Atmospheric blocking is characterized by persistent anticyclones that “block” the midlatitude jet stream, causing temperature and precipitation extremes. The traffic jam theory posits that blocking events occur when the Local Wave Activity flux, a measure of storm activity, exceeds the carrying capacity of the jet stream, leading to a pile up. The theory's efficacy for prediction is tested with atmospheric reanalysis by defining “exceedance events”, the time and location where wave activity first exceeds flow capacity. The theory captures the Northern Hemisphere winter blocking climatology, with strong spatial correlation between exceedance and blocking events. Both events are favored not only by low carrying capacity (narrow roads), but also a downstream reduction in capacity (lane closures causing a bottleneck). The theory fails, however, to accurately predict blocking events in time. Exceedance events are not a useful predictor of an imminent block, suggesting that confounding factors explain their shared climatological structure.
more »
« less
This content will become publicly available on April 30, 2026
Local wave-activity analysis of atmospheric blocks in the Northern Hemisphere winter
Abstract Atmospheric blocking entails a persistent, anomalous meandering of the jet stream that disrupts the eastward migration of transient eddies in the midlatitudes. Here we analyze a large number of blocking (and blocking-like) events in the Northern Hemisphere winter with the ERA5 reanalysis through the lens of vertically-averaged wave-activity budget. By applying a feature tracking algorithm, large-valued wave-activity anomalies that persist for 4 days or longer at a given location are identified as blocks, and block-centered composites are constructed for the wave-activity budget through the lifecycle of blocks. The identified events share commonly recognized features of blocking. The majority of the persistent events occur in clusters collocated with the quasi-stationary ridge associated with the Atlantic and the Pacific storm track. Frequency of persistent blocks is higher (lower) in regions where the ‘carrying capacity’ of the jet stream is lower (higher). A very low carrying capacity for the transient waves leads to a large population of blocks over Europe. The composite lifecycle of persistent blocks shows that convergence (divergence) of the zonal flux of wave-activity dominates the budget during the onset (decay) phase of the block, while the eddy-induced wind plays a crucial role of suppressing the zonal flux during the maturation period. Our finding broadly supports the ‘traffic jam’ hypothesis of Nakamura and Huang as a common mechanism of block formation, although there is vast diversity in the actual manifestation of individual blocks. It is argued that carrying capacity is suited for estimating blocking probability rather than for making deterministic forecasts of blocking events.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 2154523
- PAR ID:
- 10625561
- Publisher / Repository:
- American Meteorological Society
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Climate
- ISSN:
- 0894-8755
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Abstract Midlatitude weather extremes such as blocking events and Rossby wave breaking are often related to large meridional shifts in the westerly jet stream. Numerous diagnostic methods have been developed to characterize these weather events, each emphasizing different yet interrelated aspects of circulation waviness, including identifying large-amplitude ridges or persistent anomalies in geopotential height. In this study, we introduce a new metric to quantify the circulation waviness in terms of effective time scale. This is based on the Rossby wave packet from the one-point correlation map of anomalous meridional wind, applicable to jet waviness involving multiple wavenumbers. Specifically, we estimate the intrinsic frequency of Rossby waves and decay time scale of wave amplitude in the reference frame moving at the local time mean zonal wind. The resulting effective time scale, derived from linear theory, serves as a proxy for the eddy mixing time scale in jet meandering. Remarkably, its spatial distribution roughly resembles that of circulation waviness in the Northern Hemisphere winter as depicted by local wave activity (LWA). In the high-latitude regions characterized by weak zonal winds, the long time scale in waviness aligns with large values in LWA. By contrast, short waviness time scales in subtropical jet regions correspond to the suppressed amplitude in waviness despite large values in eddy kinetic energy (EKE). Furthermore, the effective time scale in waviness largely captures the interannual variability of LWA in observations and its projected future changes in climate model simulations. Thus, this relation between the waviness time scale and zonal wind provides a physical mechanism for understanding how zonal wind changes impact regional weather patterns in a changing climate. Significance StatementThe purpose of this study is to better understand what controls weather extremes in midlatitude regions such as blocking events and Rossby wave breaking. We introduce a novel concept, the effective time scale of jet stream meandering, which sheds light on these phenomena. Through analyzing Rossby waves in the reference frame moving at the local time mean zonal wind, we derive a scaling relation between circulation waviness and eddy mixing time scale. Our findings reveal that this time scale closely mirrors the spatial distribution of circulation waviness in the Northern Hemisphere winter. Importantly, it captures interannual variability and climate change responses. These insights provide a physical basis for understanding how changes in zonal wind impact regional weather patterns in observations and climate models.more » « less
-
Abstract Large meridional excursions of a jet stream are conducive to blocking and related midlatitude weather extremes, yet the physical mechanism of jet meandering is not well understood. This paper examines the mechanisms of jet meandering in boreal winter through the lens of a potential vorticity (PV)-like tracer advected by reanalysis winds in an advection–diffusion model. As the geometric structure of the tracer displays a compact relationship with PV in observations and permits a linear mapping from tracer to PV at each latitude, jet meandering can be understood by the geometric structure of tracer field that is only a function of prescribed advecting velocities. This one-way dependence of tracer field on advecting velocities provides a new modeling framework to quantify the effects of time mean flow versus transient eddies on the spatiotemporal variability of jet meandering. It is shown that the mapped tracer wave activity resembles the observed spatial pattern and magnitude of PV wave activity for the winter climatology, interannual variability, and blocking-like wave events. The anomalous increase in tracer wave activity for the composite over interannual variability or blocking-like wave events is attributed to weakened composite mean winds, indicating that the low-frequency winds are the leading factor for the overall distributions of wave activity. It is also found that the tracer model underestimates extreme wave activity, likely due to the lack of feedback mechanisms. The implications for the mechanisms of jet meandering in a changing climate are also discussed.more » « less
-
Abstract This paper examines probability distributions oflocal wave activity(LWA), a measure of the jet stream's meander, and factors that control them. The observed column‐mean LWA distributions exhibit significant seasonal, interhemispheric, and regional variations but are always positively skewed in the extratropics, and their tail often involves disruptions of the jet stream. A previously derived one‐dimensional (1D) traffic flow model driven by observed spectra of transient eddy forcing qualitatively reproduces the shape of the observed LWA distribution. It is shown that the skewed distribution emerges from nonlinearity in the zonal advection of LWA even though the eddy forcing is symmetrically distributed. A slower jet and stronger transient and stationary eddy forcings, when introduced independently, all broaden the LWA distribution and increase the probability of spontaneous jet disruption. A quasigeostrophic two‐layer model also simulates skewed LWA distributions in the upper layer. However, in the two‐layer model both transient eddy forcing and the jet speed increase with an increasing shear (meridional temperature gradient), and their opposing influence leaves the frequency of jet disruptions insensitive to the vertical shear. When the model's nonlinearity in the zonal flux of potential vorticity is artificially suppressed, it hinders wave‐flow interaction and virtually eliminates reversal of the upper‐layer zonal wind. The study underscores the importance of nonlinearity in the zonal transmission of Rossby waves to the frequency of jet disruptions and associated weather anomalies.more » « less
-
Abstract Atmospheric blocking events are persistent quasi‐stationary geopotential height anomalies that divert the jet stream from its climatological path in the mid‐ to high‐latitudes. Previous studies have found that different phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence the characteristics of blocking, but none have considered the spatial diversity of El Niño. In this study, we examine Northern Hemisphere blocking events with respect to the “Central Pacific” (CP) and “Eastern Pacific” (EP) flavors of El Niño in 83 years of ERA5 reanalysis. The two El Niño flavors have dissimilar patterns of forcing on atmospheric circulation that impact the strength and placement of the upper‐level jet stream, thus affecting blocking event frequency and duration. Significant contrasts in blocking characteristics between CP and EP years are disregarded when a single ENSO index is used, and we emphasize that El Niño flavors should be considered in future investigations of blocking and ENSO‐related variability.more » « less
