Abstract The Southern Ocean plays a major role in controlling the evolution of Antarctic glaciers and in turn their impact on sea level rise. We present the Southern Ocean high‐resolution (SOhi) simulation of the MITgcm ocean model to reproduce ice‐ocean interaction at 1/24° around Antarctica, including all ice shelf cavities and oceanic tides. We evaluate the model accuracy on the continental shelf using Marine Mammals Exploring the Oceans Pole to Pole data and compare the results with three other MITgcm ocean models (ECCO4, SOSE, and LLC4320) and the ISMIP6 temperature reconstruction. Below 400 m, all the models exhibit a warm bias on the continental shelf, but the bias is reduced in the high‐resolution simulations. We hypothesize some of the bias is due to an overestimation of sea ice cover, which reduces heat loss to the atmosphere. Both high‐resolution and accurate bathymetry are required to improve model accuracy around Antarctica.
more »
« less
This content will become publicly available on December 15, 2025
Steric Sea Level Rise and Relationships with Model Drift and Water Mass Representation in GFDL CM4 and ESM4
Abstract Density-driven steric seawater changes are a leading-order contributor to global mean sea level rise. However, intermodel differences in the magnitude and spatial patterns of steric sea level rise exist at regional scales and often emerge during the spinup and preindustrial control integrations of climate models. Steric sea level results from an eddy-permitting climate model, GFDL CM4, are compared with a lower-resolution counterpart, GFDL-ESM4. The results from both models are examined through basin-scale heat budgets and watermass analysis, and we compare the patterns of ocean heat uptake, redistribution, and sea level differ in ocean-only [i.e., Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP)] and coupled climate configurations. After correcting for model drift, both GFDL CM4 and GFDL-ESM4 simulate nearly equivalent ocean heat content change and global sea level rise during the historical period. However, the GFDL CM4 model exhibits as much as a 40% increase in surface ocean heat uptake in the Southern Ocean and subsequent increases in horizontal export to other ocean basins after bias correction. The results suggest regional differences in the processes governing Southern Ocean heat export, such as the formation of Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW), Subpolar Mode Water (SPMW), and gyre transport between the two models, and that sea level changes in these models cannot be fully bias-corrected. Since the process-level differences between the two models are evident in the preindustrial control simulations of both models, these results suggest that the control simulations are important for identifying and correcting sea level–related model biases.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 2332379
- PAR ID:
- 10626711
- Publisher / Repository:
- AMS
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Climate
- Volume:
- 37
- Issue:
- 24
- ISSN:
- 0894-8755
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 6563 to 6583
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Abstract The subtropical oceans between 35°-20°S in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) have exhibited prevailingly rapid sea-level rise (SLR) rates since the mid-20thcentury, amplifying damages of coastal hazards and exerting increasing threats to South America, Africa, and Australia. Yet, mechanisms of the observed SLR have not been firmly established, and its representation in climate models has not been examined. By analyzing observational sea-level estimates, ocean reanalysis products, and ocean model hindcasts, we show that the steric SLR of the SH subtropical oceans between 35°-20°S is faster than the global mean rate by 18.2%±9.9% during 1958-2014. However, present climate models—the fundamental bases for future climate projections—generally fail to reproduce this feature. Further analysis suggests that the rapid SLR in the SH subtropical oceans is primarily attributable to the persistent upward trend of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Physically, this trend in SAM leads to the strengthening of the SH subtropical highs, with the strongest signatures observed in the southern Indian Ocean. These changes in atmospheric circulation promote regional SLR in the SH subtropics by driving upper-ocean convergence. Climate models show systematic biases in the simulated structure and trend magnitude of SAM and significantly underestimate the enhancement of subtropical highs. These biases lead to the inability of models to correctly simulate the observed subtropical SLR. This work highlights the paramount necessity of reducing model biases to provide reliable regional sea-level projections.more » « less
-
Abstract. We use a recent reconstruction of global mean sea surface temperature change relative to preindustrial (ΔGMSST) over the last 4.5 Myr together with independent proxy-based reconstructions of bottom water (ΔBWT) or deep-ocean (ΔDOT) temperatures to infer changes in mean ocean temperature (ΔMOT). Three independent lines of evidence show that the ratio of ΔMOT / ΔGMSST, which is a measure of ocean heat storage efficiency (HSE), increased from ∼ 0.5 to ∼ 1 during the Middle Pleistocene Transition (MPT, 1.5–0.9 Ma), indicating an increase in ocean heat uptake (OHU) at this time. The first line of evidence comes from global climate models; the second from proxy-based reconstructions of ΔBWT, ΔMOT, and ΔGMSST; and the third from decomposing a global mean benthic δ18O stack (δ18Ob) into its temperature (δ18OT) and seawater (δ18Osw) components. Regarding the latter, we also find that further corrections in benthic δ18O, probably due to some combination of a long-term diagenetic overprint and to the carbonate ion effect, are necessary to explain reconstructed Pliocene sea-level highstands inferred from δ18Osw. We develop a simple conceptual model that invokes an increase in OHU and HSE during the MPT in response to changes in deep-ocean circulation driven largely by surface forcing of the Southern Ocean. Our model accounts for heat uptake and temperature in the non-polar upper ocean (0–2000 m) that is mainly due to wind-driven ventilation, while changes in the deeper ocean (> 2000 m) in both polar and non-polar waters occur due to high-latitude deepwater formation. We propose that deepwater formation was substantially reduced prior to the MPT, effectively decreasing HSE. We attribute these changes in deepwater formation across the MPT to long-term cooling which caused a change starting ∼ 1.5 Ma from a highly stratified Southern Ocean due to warm SSTs and reduced sea-ice extent to a Southern Ocean which, due to colder SSTs and increased sea-ice extent, had a greater vertical exchange of water masses.more » « less
-
Abstract Ocean warming patterns are a primary control on regional sea level rise and transient climate sensitivity. However, controls on these patterns in both observations and models are not fully understood, complicated as they are by their dependence on the “addition” of heat to the ocean’s interior along background ventilation pathways and on the “redistribution” of heat between regions by changing ocean dynamics. While many previous studies attribute heat redistribution to changes in high-latitude processes, here we propose that substantial heat redistribution is explained by the large-scale adjustment of the geostrophic flow to warming within the pycnocline. We explore this hypothesis in the University of Victoria Earth System Model, estimating added heat using the transport matrix method. We find that throughout the midlatitudes, subtropics, and tropics, patterns of added and redistributed heat in the model are strongly anticorrelated (R≈ −0.75). We argue that this occurs because changes in ocean currents, acting across pre-existing temperature gradients, redistribute heat away from regions of strong passive heat convergence. Over broad scales, this advective response can be estimated from changes in upper-ocean density alone using the thermal wind relation and is linked to an adjustment of the subtropical pycnocline. These results highlight a previously unappreciated relationship between added and redistributed heat and emphasize the role that subtropical and midlatitude dynamics play in setting patterns of ocean heat storage. Significance StatementThe point of our study was to better understand the geographic pattern of ocean warming caused by human-driven climate change. Warming patterns are challenging to predict because they are sensitive both to how the ocean absorbs heat from the atmosphere and to how ocean currents change in response to increased emissions. We showed that these processes are not independent of one another: in many regions, changes in ocean currents reduce regional variations in the build-up of new heat absorbed from the atmosphere. This finding may help to constrain future projections of regional ocean warming, which matters because ocean warming patterns have a major influence on regional sea level rise, marine ecosystem degradation, and the rate of atmospheric warming.more » « less
-
Most state-of-art models project a reduced equatorial Pacific east-west temperature gradient and a weakened Walker circulation under global warming. However, the causes of this robust projection remain elusive. Here, we devise a series of slab ocean model experiments to diagnostically decompose the global warming response into the contributions from the direct carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing, sea ice changes, and regional ocean heat uptake. The CO2forcing dominates the Walker circulation slowdown through enhancing the tropical tropospheric stability. Antarctic sea ice changes and local ocean heat release are the dominant drivers for reduced zonal temperature gradient over the equatorial Pacific, while the Southern Ocean heat uptake opposes this change. Corroborating our model experiments, multimodel analysis shows that the models with greater Southern Ocean heat uptake exhibit less reduction in the temperature gradient and less weakening of the Walker circulation. Therefore, constraining the tropical Pacific projection requires a better insight into Southern Ocean processes.more » « less
An official website of the United States government
