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Abstract Large volcanic eruptions are one of the dominant perturbations to global and regional atmospheric temperatures on timescales of years to decades. Discrepancies remain, however, in the estimated magnitude and persistence of the surface temperature cooling caused by volcanic eruptions, as characterized by paleoclimatic proxies and climate models. We investigate these discrepancies in the context of large tropical eruptions over the Last Millennium using two state‐of‐the‐art data assimilation products, the Paleo Hydrodynamics Data Assimilation product (PHYDA) and the Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR), and simulations from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model‐Last Millennium Ensemble (NCAR CESM‐LME). We find that PHYDA and LMR estimate mean global and hemispheric cooling that is similar in magnitude and persistence once effects from eruptions occurring in short succession are removed. The estimates also compare well to Northern‐Hemisphere reconstructions based solely or partially on tree‐ring density, which have been proposed as the most accurate proxy estimates of surface cooling due to volcanism. All proxy‐based estimates also agree well with the magnitude of the mean cooling simulated by the CESM‐LME. Differences remain, however, in the spatial patterns of the temperature responses in the PHYDA, LMR, and the CESM‐LME. The duration of cooling anomalies also persists for several years longer in the PHYDA and LMR relative to the CESM‐LME. Our results demonstrate progress in resolving discrepancies between proxy‐ and model‐based estimates of temperature responses to volcanism, but also indicate these estimates must be further reconciled to better characterize the risks of future volcanic eruptions.
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This content will become publicly available on February 1, 2026
Proxy- and Model-Estimated Coupled Megadroughts in the Southwestern Regions of North and South America
Abstract The North American Southwest (NASW) and South American Southwest (SASW) are regions susceptible to prolonged and intense droughts that can span a decade or more (i.e., megadroughts). Although the drivers and impacts of megadroughts in each region and their co-occurrence have been examined in paleoclimate reconstructions, it is not known whether climate models simulate co-occurring megadroughts in these regions with characteristics and drivers that are similar to the real world. We compare the temporal characteristics of concurrent megadroughts and the Pacific Ocean conditions associated with these events in the Paleo Hydrodynamics Data Assimilation (PHYDA) product and the Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME). We find that concurrent megadroughts in PHYDA and CESM-LME have similar temporal characteristics, but the relationship between hydroclimate conditions in the NASW and SASW is different between proxy-based estimates and the climate model. Further analyses reveal that changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean are weaker during concurrent megadroughts in the CESM-LME compared to those in PHYDA and that their teleconnection patterns and strengths are different. Reconstruction methodology is also found to be a factor in how the relationship between the tropical Pacific and each region is characterized. These results together indicate that while the CESM-LME simulates concurrent megadroughts with temporal characteristics similar to PHYDA, it does so for different reasons; this result leaves open the question of whether climate models used for future projections can accurately capture the risk of concurrent megadroughts in future projections.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2101214
- PAR ID:
- 10626738
- Publisher / Repository:
- American Meteorological Society
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Climate
- Volume:
- 38
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 0894-8755
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 717 to 729
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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