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Atmospheric water vapor is predominately sourced from the tropics, such that characterizing the link between the tropical water cycle and global climate is of critical importance. Studies of central Andean climate from Lake Junín (11 °S, Peru) show that tropical glacial extent tracks global ice volume at a ~100 ka periodicity for the last 6 glacial cycles, indicating a tight coupling between tropical water balance and high latitude climate. However, it can be difficult to decouple temperature, precipitation, and water balance histories from records of glacial extent, especially for older intervals. In this work, we focus on one such interval, MIS 15 (621–563 ka), when the connections between tropical Andean water balance and global climate seem different than the last glacial cycle. Globally, MIS 15 was a weak interglacial, with cool temperatures and low GHG concentrations, however, the Lake Junín glacial record suggests an amplified hydroclimate response to this interglacial, stronger than any other over the last 700 ka. Causes for this apparent tropical amplification may be due to large, precession-paced changes in meridional insolation gradients that exceed other interglacials owning to enhanced orbital eccentricity. Given that the role of precession on South American monsoon strength over the last glacial cycle is well established, we hypothesize that monsoon strength may have been highly variable during MIS 15 and forced changes in central Andean water balance and glacial extent. To test this, we reconstructed temperature and evaporation histories using carbonate clumped and triple oxygen isotopes of Lake Junín sediments. Preliminary results suggest temperatures were relatively stable, but possibly lower than both the present and Holocene, consistent with cool global climate at that time. Triple oxygen isotope values vary substantially, indicating massive swings in lake hydrology, between open and (nearly?) closed basin hydrology on a ~12 ka cycle that exactly match insolation variations. From this work, we conclude that hydrologic change in the central Andes was rapid and extreme during MIS 15, owning to profound changes in monsoon strength. Given that monsoons in other sectors are also sensitive to insolation changes, our work could suggest pervasive hydrologic variability throughout the tropics at this time.
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This content will become publicly available on August 28, 2026
Orbital Forcing Drives Both the South American Monsoon and Local Water Balance in the Central Andes During Interglacials
Abstract South American summer monsoon (SASM) strength tracks insolation on orbital timescales, linking global climate and continental hydrology. However, whether local water availability also responds to global climate forcings is unclear. Here, we present water balance records from Lake Junín, an Andean lake within the SASM domain. Local water balance and SASM strength is inferred from triple oxygen isotopes of lake carbonates during two interglacial periods (Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 15, 621–563 ka; the Holocene, 11.7–0 ka). We find SASM strength and water balance both follow the precession‐pacing of local summer insolation, with the driest conditions occurring at Lake Junín under weakened SASM conditions (and vice versa). Further, the largest variations occurred during MIS 15, when insolation was more variable than the Holocene. These results suggest that global climate influences South American hydrology on both the local and continental scales, with implications for tropical water resources, the atmospheric greenhouse effect, and ecosystem dynamics.
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- PAR ID:
- 10627999
- Publisher / Repository:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Volume:
- 52
- Issue:
- 16
- ISSN:
- 0094-8276
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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