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Abstract Understanding the community ecology of vector-borne and zoonotic diseases, and how it may shift transmission risk as it responds to environmental change, has become a central focus in disease ecology. Yet, it has been challenging to link the ecology of disease with reported human incidence. Here, we bridge the gap between local-scale community ecology and large-scale disease epidemiology, drawing from a priori knowledge of tick-pathogen-host ecology to model spatially-explicit Lyme disease (LD) risk, and human Lyme disease incidence (LDI) in California. We first use a species distribution modeling approach to model disease risk with variables capturing climate, vegetation, and ecology of key reservoir host species, and host species richness. We then use our modeled disease risk to predict human disease incidence at the zip code level across California. Our results suggest the ecology of key reservoir hosts—particularly dusky-footed woodrats—is central to disease risk posed by ticks, but that host community richness is not strongly associated with tick infection. Predicted disease risk, which is most strongly influenced by the ecology of dusky-footed woodrats, in turn is a strong predictor of human LDI. This relationship holds in the Wildland-Urban Interface, but not in open access public lands, and is stronger in northern California than in the state as a whole. This suggests peridomestic exposure to infected ticks may be more important to LD epidemiology in California than recreational exposure, and underlines the importance of the community ecology of LD in determining human transmission risk throughout this LD endemic region of far western North America. More targeted tick and pathogen surveillance, coupled with studies of human and tick behavior could improve understanding of key risk factors and inform public health interventions. Moreover, longitudinal surveillance data could further improve forecasts of disease risk in response to global environmental change.
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This content will become publicly available on July 10, 2026
Historical ecology of the Southern Central American Pacific coast
The Pacific coast of the Southern Central American Isthmus is a highly productive and biodiverse region with a rich human history. Although the interaction of the oceans, climate, biodiversity and early human systems has shaped the region’s ecology, research has remained largely disconnected, arising independently from discrete disciplines. To unite this disparate research, we reviewed and synthesized the historical ecology of the Isthmus from the Last Glacial Maximum to the rise of industrial fishing in the 1950s. Our findings reveal a complex interplay between environmental changes, human adaptations and resource use patterns. We identify three major transitions that influenced resource use: the shift to agriculture, the stabilization of rising sea levels and the arrival of Spanish colonists. Each transition marked a significant shift in human–environment interactions, yet we find that the ocean consistently played a central role. This interdisciplinary synthesis offers insights into the region’s socio-ecological past, emphasizing the importance of ocean–land connections for Isthmian peoples and the critical need for research and conservation efforts to ensure its future sustainability. A Spanish language version of the abstract is provided as electronic supplementary material. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Shifting seas: understanding deep-time human impacts on marine ecosystems’.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2347773
- PAR ID:
- 10629226
- Publisher / Repository:
- Royal Society
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
- Volume:
- 380
- Issue:
- 1930
- ISSN:
- 0962-8436
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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