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Abstract Barnard’s Loop is a famous arc of Hαemission located in the Orion star-forming region. Here, we provide evidence of a possible formation mechanism for Barnard’s Loop and compare our results with recent work suggesting a major feedback event occurred in the region around 6 Myr ago. We present a 3D model of the large-scale Orion region, indicating coherent, radial, 3D expansion of the OBP-Near/Briceño-1 (OBP-B1) cluster in the middle of a large dust cavity. The large-scale gas in the region also appears to be expanding from a central point, originally proposed to be Orion X. OBP-B1 appears to serve as another possible center, and we evaluate whether Orion X or OBP-B1 is more likely to have caused the expansion. We find that neither cluster served as the single expansion center, but rather a combination of feedback from both likely propelled the expansion. Recent 3D dust maps are used to characterize the 3D topology of the entire region, which shows Barnard’s Loop’s correspondence with a large dust cavity around the OPB-B1 cluster. The molecular clouds Orion A, Orion B, and Orionλreside on the shell of this cavity. Simple estimates of gravitational effects from both stars and gas indicate that the expansion of this asymmetric cavity likely induced anisotropy in the kinematics of OBP-B1. We conclude that feedback from OBP-B1 has affected the structure of the Orion A, Orion B, and Orionλmolecular clouds and may have played a major role in the formation of Barnard’s Loop.
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This content will become publicly available on December 1, 2025
Estimating the mean squared prediction error of the observed best predictor associated with small area counts: A computationally oriented approach
Abstract We consider estimation of the mean squared prediction error (MSPE) for observed best prediction (OBP) in small area estimation with count data. The OBP method has been previously developed in this context by Chen et al. (Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology, 3, 136–161, 2015). However, estimation of the MSPE remains a challenging problem due to potential model misspecification that is considered in this setting. The latter authors proposed a bootstrap method for estimating the MSPE, whose theoretical justification is not clear. We propose to use a Prasad–Rao‐type linearization method to estimate the MSPE. Unlike the traditional linearization approaches, our method is computationally oriented and easier to implement in the same regard. Theoretical properties and empirical performance of the proposed method are studied. A real‐data application is considered.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2210569
- PAR ID:
- 10629256
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Canadian Journal of Statistics
- Volume:
- 52
- Issue:
- 4
- ISSN:
- 0319-5724
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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