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The role of climate factors on transmission of mosquito-borne infections within urban landscapes must be considered in the context of the pronounced spatial heterogeneity of such environments. Socio-demographic and environmental variation challenge control efforts for emergent arboviruses transmitted via the urban mosquitoAedes aegypti. We address at high resolution, the spatial heterogeneity of dengue transmission risk in the megacity of Delhi, India, as a function of both temperature and the carrying-capacity of the human environment for the mosquito. Based on previous results predicting maximum mosquitoes per human for different socio-economic typologies, and on remote sensing temperature data, we produce a map of the reproductive number of dengue at a resolution of 250m by 250m. We focus on dengue risk hotspots during inter-epidemic periods, places where chains of transmission can persist for longer. We assess the resulting high-resolution risk map of dengue with reported cases for three consecutive boreal winters. We find that both temperature and vector carrying-capacity per human co-vary in space because of their respective dependence on population density. The synergistic action of these two factors results in larger variation of dengue’s reproductive number than when considered separately, with poor and dense locations experiencing the warmest conditions and becoming the most likely reservoirs off-season. The location of observed winter cases is accurately predicted for different risk threshold criteria. Results underscore the inequity of risk across a complex urban landscape, whereby individuals in dense poor neighborhoods face the compounded effect of higher temperatures and mosquito carrying capacity. Targeting chains of transmission in inter-epidemic periods at these locations should be a priority of control efforts. A better mapping is needed of the interplay between climate factors that are dominant determinants of the seasonality of vector-borne infections and the socio-economic conditions behind unequal exposure.
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This content will become publicly available on April 1, 2026
Non-household environments make a major contribution to dengue transmission: implications for vector control
The incidence ofAedes-borne pathogens has been increasing despite vector control efforts. Control strategies typically target households (HH), whereAedesmosquitoes breed in HH containers and bite indoors. However, our study in Kenyan cities of Kisumu and Ukunda (2019–2022) revealed highAedesabundance in public spaces, prompting the question: How important are non-household (NH) environments for dengue transmission and control? Using field data and human activity patterns, we developed an agent-based model simulating transmission across HH and five types of NH environments, which was then used to evaluate preventive (before an epidemic) and reactive (after an epidemic commences) vector control scenarios. Our findings estimate over half of infections occurring in NH settings, particularly workplaces, markets and recreational sites. Container removal was more effective in NH than in HH areas, contrasting with the global focus on HH-based management. Greater reductions in dengue cases occurred with early, high-coverage interventions, especially in NH locations. Additionally, local ecological factors, such as uneven water container distribution, influence control outcomes. This study underscores the importance of vector control in both HH and NH environments in endemic settings. It highlights a specific approach to inform evidence-based decision-making to target limited vector control resources for optimal control.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2011147
- PAR ID:
- 10630494
- Publisher / Repository:
- Royal Society Publishing
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Royal Society Open Science
- Volume:
- 12
- Issue:
- 4
- ISSN:
- 2054-5703
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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