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Conflict, manifesting as riots and protests, is a common occurrence in urban environments worldwide. Understanding their likely locations is crucial to policymakers, who may (for example) seek to provide overseas travelers with guidance on safe areas, or local policymakers with the ability to pre-position medical aid or police presences to mediate negative impacts associated with riot events. Past efforts to forecast these events have focused on the use of news and social media, restricting applicability to areas with available data. This study utilizes a ResNet convolutional neural network and high-resolution satellite imagery to estimate the spatial distribution of riots or protests within urban environments. At a global scale (N = 18,631 conflict events), by training our model to understand relationships between urban form and riot events, we are able to predict the likelihood that a given urban area will experience a riot or protest with accuracy as high as 97%. This research has the potential to improve our ability to forecast and understand the relationship between urban form and conflict events, even in data-sparse regions.
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This content will become publicly available on January 1, 2026
From Prediction to Explanation: Using Explainable AI to Understand Satellite-Based Riot Forecasting Models
This study investigates the application of explainable AI (XAI) techniques to understand the deep learning models used for predicting urban conflict from satellite imagery. First, a ResNet18 convolutional neural network achieved 89% accuracy in distinguishing riot and non-riot urban areas. Using the Score-CAM technique, regions critical to the model’s predictions were identified, and masking these areas caused a 20.9% drop in the classification accuracy, highlighting their importance. However, Score-CAM’s ability to consistently localize key features was found to be limited, particularly in complex, multi-object urban environments. Analysis revealed minimal alignment between the model-identified features and traditional land use metrics, suggesting that deep learning captures unique patterns not represented in existing GIS datasets. These findings underscore the potential of deep learning to uncover previously unrecognized socio-spatial dynamics while revealing the need for improved interpretability methods. This work sets the stage for future research to enhance explainable AI techniques, bridging the gap between model performance and interpretability and advancing our understanding of urban conflict drivers.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2317591
- PAR ID:
- 10631652
- Publisher / Repository:
- MDPI
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Remote Sensing
- Volume:
- 17
- Issue:
- 2
- ISSN:
- 2072-4292
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 313
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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