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Abstract The potential for future earthquakes on faults is often inferred from inversions of geodetically derived surface velocities for locking on faults using kinematic models such as block models. This can be challenging in complex deforming zones with many closely spaced faults or where deformation is not readily described with block motions. Furthermore, surface strain rates are more directly related to coupling on faults than surface velocities. We present a methodology for estimating slip deficit rate directly from strain rate and apply it to New Zealand for the purpose of incorporating geodetic data in the 2022 revision of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model. The strain rate inversions imply slightly higher slip deficit rates than the preferred geologic slip rates on sections of the major strike‐slip systems including the Alpine Fault, the Marlborough Fault System and the northern part of the North Island Fault System. Slip deficit rates are significantly lower than even the lowest geologic estimates on some strike‐slip faults in the southern North Island Fault System near Wellington. Over the entire plate boundary, geodetic slip deficit rates are systematically higher than geologic slip rates for faults slipping less than one mm/yr but lower on average for faults with slip rates between about 5 and 25 mm/yr. We show that 70%–80% of the total strain rate field can be attributed to elastic strain due to fault coupling. The remaining 20%–30% shows systematic spatial patterns of strain rate style that is often consistent with local geologic style of faulting.
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3D Reconstruction of Complex Fault Systems From Volumetric Geodynamic Shear Zones Using Medial Axis Transform
Abstract Reconstructing fault surfaces from volumetric data is a longstanding challenge in geosciences. We present a novel 3D method based on the medial axis to transform a volumetric strain‐rate invariant field from long‐term geodynamic simulations into fault surfaces. In these geodynamic models, faults correspond to regions of locally high values of the second invariant of the strain‐rate commonly referred to as shear zones. The proposed workflow begins by normalizing the strain‐rate to define fault indicator field . An iso‐surface of a chosen value is then extracted to form an envelope around the shear zones. Using the shrinking ball algorithm (Ma et al., 2012,https://doi.org/10.1007/s00371‐011‐0594‐7), we compute the medial axis of this 3D envelope to generate a point cloud representing the geometric skeleton of the shear zones. We reconstruct fault surfaces by applying Delaunay triangulation followed by Laplacian smoothing. For models involving multiple intersecting faults, we perform a local principal component analysis (PCA) of the coordinates defining the medial axis and use the resulting eigenvectors to detect first‐order orientation variations, enabling the separation and individualization of faults. We demonstrate the generality and robustness of the method by applying it several diverse 3D geodynamic scenarios: A single strike‐slip fault, a branching strike‐slip fault in a restraining bend, a dense strike‐slip fault network, a rift system, and a subduction zone with a megathrust and a conjugate thrust fault.
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- PAR ID:
- 10632622
- Publisher / Repository:
- AGU
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems
- Volume:
- 26
- Issue:
- 6
- ISSN:
- 1525-2027
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GC012169
