skip to main content
US FlagAn official website of the United States government
dot gov icon
Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
https lock icon
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( lock ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.

Explore Research Products in the PAR
It may take a few hours for recently added research products to appear in PAR search results.


This content will become publicly available on February 17, 2026

Title: Changing-look inspirals: trends and switches in AGN disc emission as signposts for merging black hole binaries
ABSTRACT Using grid-based hydrodynamics simulations and analytic modeling, we compute the electromagnetic (EM) signatures of gravitational wave (GW) driven inspirals of massive black hole binaries that accrete gas from circumbinary discs, exploring the effects of varying gas temperatures, viscosity laws, and binary mass ratios. Our main finding is that active galactic nuclei (AGNs) that host inspiraling binaries can exhibit two sub-types of long-term secular variability patterns: Type-A events which dim before merger and brighten afterward, and Type-B events which brighten before merger and dim afterward. In both types, the merger coincides with a long-lasting chromatic change of the AGN appearance. The sub-types correspond to the direction of angular momentum transfer between the binary and the disc, and could thus have correlated GW signatures if the gas-induced torque can be inferred from GW phase drift measurements by LISA. The long-term brightness trends are caused by steady weakening of the disc-binary torque that accompanies orbital decay, it induces a hysteresis effect whereby the disc ‘remembers’ the history of the binary’s contraction. We illustrate the effect using a reduced model problem of an axisymmetric thin disc subjected at its inner edge to the weakening torque of an inspiraling binary. The model problem yields a new class of self-similar disc solutions, which capture salient features of the multidimensional hydrodynamics simulations. We use these solutions to derive variable AGN disc emission signatures within years to decades of massive black hole binary mergers in AGNs. Spectral changes of Mrk 1018 might have been triggered by an inspiral-merger event.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2408034
PAR ID:
10634189
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ;
Publisher / Repository:
MNRAS
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society
Volume:
537
Issue:
4
ISSN:
0035-8711
Page Range / eLocation ID:
3620 to 3631
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. ; (, Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society)
    ABSTRACT We present a theoretical study of the gravitational wave (GW) driven inspirals of accreting black hole binaries with mass $$M = 10^7 M_\odot$$ and mass ratios between $$10^{-3}$$ and $$10^{-1}$$. Our results are based on analytic estimates, and grid-based hydrodynamics simulations run for many thousands of binary orbits before the merger. We show that the GW inspiral is evident in the light curves and colour evolution of a binary-hosting quasar over years to decades before a merger. The long-term electromagnetic (EM) signature is characterized by a gradual UV brightening and X-ray dimming, followed by an X-ray disappearance hours to days before the GW burst, and finally, a years-like re-brightening as the disc relaxes and refuels the remnant black hole. These time-scales are surprisingly insensitive to the normalization of the kinematic viscosity in the disc. The spectrum of quasi-thermal disc emission shows two peaks: one in the UV and another in the X-ray, associated with the outer and circum-secondary discs, respectively; emission from the inner disc is suppressed because the secondary consumes most of the inflowing gas. We discuss implications for real-time and archival EM follow-up of GW bursts detected by LISA. 
    more » « less
  2. ; (, Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society)
    ABSTRACT Merging black holes (BHs) are expected to produce remnants with large dimensionless spin parameters (aspin ∼ 0.7). However, gravitational wave (GW) observations with LIGO–Virgo–Kagra (LVK) suggest that merging BHs are consistent with modestly positive but not high spin (aspin ∼ 0.2), causing tension with models suggesting that high-mass mergers are produced by hierarchical merger channels. Some BHs also show evidence for strong in-plane spin components. Here, we point out that spin-down of BHs due to eccentric prograde post-merger orbits within the gas of an active galactic nucleus (AGN) disc can yield BHs with masses in the upper mass gap, but only modestly positive aspin, and thus observations of BHs with low spin do not rule out hierarchical models. We also point out that the fraction of binary black hole (BBH) mergers with significant in-plane spin components is a strong test of interactions between disc BBHs and nuclear spheroid orbiters. Spin magnitude and spin tilt constraints from LVK observations of BBHs are an excellent test of dynamics of BHs in AGN discs, disc properties, and the nuclear clusters interacting with AGNs. 
    more » « less
  3. ; ; ; ; ; ; ; (, Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society)
    ABSTRACT Observations by LIGO–Virgo of binary black hole mergers suggest a possible anticorrelation between black hole mass ratio (q = m2/m1) and the effective inspiral spin parameter χeff, the mass-weighted spin projection on to the binary orbital angular momentum. We show that such an anticorrelation can arise for binary black holes assembled in active galactic nuclei (AGNs) due to spherical and planar symmetry-breaking effects. We describe a phenomenological model in which (1) heavier black holes live in the AGN disc and tend to spin-up into alignment with the disc; (2) lighter black holes with random spin orientations live in the nuclear spheroid; (3) the AGN disc is dense enough to rapidly capture a fraction of the spheroid component, but small in radial extent to limit the number of bulk disc mergers; (4) migration within the disc is non-uniform, likely disrupted by feedback from migrators or disc turbulence; (5) dynamical encounters in the disc are common and preferentially disrupt binaries that are retrograde around their centre of mass, particularly at stalling orbits, or traps. Comparisons of predictions in (q, χeff) parameter space for the different channels may allow us to distinguish their fractional contributions to the observed merger rates. 
    more » « less
  4. ; (, Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society)
    ABSTRACT Galactic nuclei are promising sites for stellar origin black hole (BH) mergers, as part of merger hierarchies in deep potential wells. We show that binary black hole (BBH) merger rates in active galactic nuclei (AGNs) should always exceed merger rates in quiescent galactic nuclei (nuclear star clusters, NSCs) around supermassive black holes (SMBHs) without accretion discs. This is primarily due to average binary lifetimes in AGNs that are significantly shorter than those in NSCs. The lifetime difference comes from rapid hardening of BBHs in AGNs, such that their semimajor axes are smaller than the hard–soft boundary of their parent NSC; this contrasts with the large average lifetime to merger for BBHs in NSCs around SMBHs, due to binary ionization mechanisms. Secondarily, merger rates in AGNs are enhanced by gas-driven binary formation mechanisms. Formation of new BHs in AGN discs is a minor contributor to the rate differences. With the gravitational wave detection of several BBHs with at least one progenitor in the upper mass gap, and signatures of dynamical formation channels in the χeff distribution, we argue that AGNs could contribute $$\sim 25{\!-\!}80{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$$ of the LIGO–Virgo measured rate of $$\sim 24\, \rm {Gpc}^{-3} \rm {yr}^{-1}$$. 
    more » « less
  5. ; ; ; ; (, Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society)
    ABSTRACT Supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) are a natural outcome of galaxy mergers and should form frequently in galactic nuclei. Sub-parsec binaries can be identified from their bright electromagnetic emission, e.g. Active Galactic Nuclei (AGNs) with Doppler shifted broad emission lines or AGN with periodic variability, as well as from the emission of strong gravitational radiation. The most massive binaries (with total mass >108M⊙) emit in the nanohertz band and are targeted by Pulsar Timing Arrays (PTAs). Here we examine the synergy between electromagnetic and gravitational wave signatures of SMBHBs. We connect both signals to the orbital dynamics of the binary and examine the common link between them, laying the foundation for joint multimessenger observations. We find that periodic variability arising from relativistic Doppler boost is the most promising electromagnetic signature to connect with GWs. We delineate the parameter space (binary total mass/chirp mass versus binary period/GW frequency) for which joint observations are feasible. Currently multimessenger detections are possible only for the most massive and nearby galaxies, limited by the sensitivity of PTAs. However, we demonstrate that as PTAs collect more data in the upcoming years, the overlapping parameter space is expected to expand significantly. 
    more » « less
  • Citation Formats
  • MLA
  • APA
  • Chicago
  • BibTeX
  • Save / Share this Record
  • Send to Email