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Title: A Quantitative Analysis of Rational Decisions Under Uncertainty in Engineering Systems Design
Rational decision-making is crucial in the later stages of engineering system design to allocate resources efficiently and minimize costs. However, human rationality is bounded by cognitive biases and limitations. Understanding how humans deviate from rationality is critical for guiding designers toward better design outcomes. In this paper, we quantify designer rationality in competitive scenarios based on utility theory. Using an experiment inspired by crowd-sourced contests, we show that designers employ varied search strategies. Some participants approximate a Bayesian agent that aimed to maximize its expected utility. Those with higher rationality reduce uncertainty more effectively. Furthermore, rationality correlates with both the proximity to optimal design and design iteration costs, with winning participants exhibiting greater rationality than losing participants.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2419423
PAR ID:
10636310
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ;
Publisher / Repository:
Cambridge University Press
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Proceedings of the Design Society
Volume:
5
Issue:
ICED2025
ISSN:
2732-527X
Page Range / eLocation ID:
249 to 258
Subject(s) / Keyword(s):
bounded rationality utility theory decision under uncertainty Bayesian optimization
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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