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Counterdrug interdiction efforts designed to seize or disrupt cocaine shipments between South American source zones and US markets remain a core US “supply side” drug policy and national security strategy. However, despite a long history of US-led interdiction efforts in the Western Hemisphere, cocaine movements to the United States through Central America, or “narco-trafficking,” continue to rise. Here, we developed a spatially explicit agent-based model (ABM), called “NarcoLogic,” of narco-trafficker operational decision making in response to interdiction forces to investigate the root causes of interdiction ineffectiveness across space and time. The central premise tested was that spatial proliferation and resiliency of narco-trafficking are not a consequence of ineffective interdiction, but rather part and natural consequence of interdiction itself. Model development relied on multiple theoretical perspectives, empirical studies, media reports, and the authors’ own years of field research in the region. Parameterization and validation used the best available, authoritative data source for illicit cocaine flows. Despite inherently biased, unreliable, and/or incomplete data of a clandestine phenomenon, the model compellingly reproduced the “cat-and-mouse” dynamic between narco-traffickers and interdiction forces others have qualitatively described. The model produced qualitatively accurate and quantitatively realistic spatial and temporal patterns of cocaine trafficking in response to interdiction events. The NarcoLogic model offers a much-needed, evidence-based tool for the robust assessment of different drug policy scenarios, and their likely impact on trafficker behavior and the many collateral damages associated with the militarized war on drugs.
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This content will become publicly available on July 5, 2026
A Novel Method for Measuring the Extent of Cocaine Flows Across the U.S
We propose a novel method to measure the spatial extent of cocaine flows in the US using data on the price and purity of cocaine observed in drug seizures or undercover drug purchases. We then compare the cocaine trafficking network extracted using this method to anecdotal knowledge about cocaine flows using network analytic methods. Based on the network analysis, the trafficking networks inferred from price and purity data appear to be more elaborate in their geographic extent than prior anecdotal evidence suggests. The analysis uncovers previously unrecognized flows, notably identifying multiple possible cocaine source points along the US-Canadian border, challenging the traditional and likely incomplete narrative focused on the southern border. This study demonstrates that variation in cocaine purity across space and over time can help detect unconventional patterns of cocaine flows, complementing the conventional understanding of the extent of cocaine flows.
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- PAR ID:
- 10636648
- Publisher / Repository:
- Taylor and Francis
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Justice Quarterly
- ISSN:
- 0741-8825
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1 to 24
- Subject(s) / Keyword(s):
- Cocaine trafficking networks network analysis USA cocaine price cocaine purity
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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