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Abstract Floods are important disturbances to urban socio‐eco‐technical systems and their meteorological drivers are projected to increase through the century due to global climate change. Urban flood models are numerical models that have the capability of representing the features of urban ecosystems and the mechanisms of flooding that impact them. They have the potential to play a critical role in flood risk assessment, operational response, and resilience planning, but existing models remain limited in their capability to represent integrated flooding processes in urban areas and provide the credible quantitative information needed to support risk assessment and resilience practice. Research to advance model development, facilitate intensive watershed monitoring for model parameterization and validation, and support collaboration between researchers and practitioners should be prioritized. This will represent a substantial, expensive effort, but will still be of great value as cities are faced with urgent challenges posed by climate change in coming decades.
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This content will become publicly available on July 1, 2026
Reconceptualizing urban flood modeling: Toward intersectional and equitable urban flood risk planning
Urban flooding, fueled by climate change and rapid urbanization, presents significant challenges for cities around the world. In the United States, this is of particular concern as we see older cities reaching their maximum development density, and newer cities developing to the edge of their boundaries. The dynamic nature of cities and the people that live in them complicate urban flood risk modeling. This paper highlights the need to reconceptualize urban flooding from a spatially and temporally intersectional perspective by analyzing the patterns of socio-economic and bio-physical data across eight US cities to illustrate how spatial flood risk is driven by place-specific factors. Here, we demonstrate the need for a holistic understanding of flood risk, which acknowledges both the deep histories and uncertain futures specific to each city to promote urban flood resilience and environmental justice. Legacies of racialized development continue to influence the spatial heterogeneity of urban flood risk. Thus, centering the ways past injustice has shaped the environment is critical to highlighting inequities in who and where is at increased risk of flooding. The varying impacts of climate change on flooding in different cities, as well as the actions city governments have taken in response to flood events, inform risk and should be included in modeling efforts. There are many challenges in incorporating new temporal dynamics into flood risk modeling, such as data availability, creating a necessity for a greater understanding of flood impact. This is required not only to fully comprehend the impacts of flooding but also to identify appropriate, necessary, and community-sensitive flood interventions as well as to optimize the impact of adaptive measures. Considering historical and future drivers of risk, intersectional flood risk models are required to promote more equitable and effective resilience efforts. This approach will allow urban flood planners and engineers to gain a deeper understanding of how to promote climate resilience while overcoming the reinforcement of discriminatory development and management patterns.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2426951
- PAR ID:
- 10638325
- Publisher / Repository:
- Elsevier
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Sustainable Cities and Society
- Volume:
- 130
- Issue:
- C
- ISSN:
- 2210-6707
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 106578
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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