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Abstract Recent advances in remote sensing and the upcoming launch of the joint NASA/CNES/CSA/UKSA Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite point toward improved river discharge estimates in ungauged basins. Existing discharge methods rely on “prior river knowledge” to infer parameters not directly measured from space. Here, we show that discharge estimation is improved by classifying and parameterizing rivers based on their unique geomorphology and hydraulics. Using over 370,000 in situ hydraulic observations as training data, we test unsupervised learning and an “expert” method to assign these hydraulics and geomorphology to rivers via remote sensing. This intervention, along with updates to model physics, constitutes a new method we term “geoBAM,” an update of the Bayesian At‐many‐stations hydraulic geometry‐Manning's (BAM) algorithm. We tested geoBAM on Landsat imagery over more than 7,500 rivers (108 are gauged) in Canada's Mackenzie River basin and on simulated hydraulic data for 19 rivers that mimic SWOT observations without measurement error. geoBAM yielded considerable improvement over BAM, improving the median Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) for the Mackenzie River from −0.05 to 0.26 and from 0.16 to 0.46 for the SWOT rivers. Further, NSE improved by at least 0.10 in 78/108 gauged Mackenzie rivers and 8/19 SWOT rivers. We attribute geoBAM improvement to parameterizing rivers by type rather than globally, but prediction accuracy worsens if parameters are misassigned. This method is easily mapped to rivers at the global scale and paves the way for improving future discharge estimates, especially when coupled with hydrologic models.
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This content will become publicly available on May 16, 2026
A First Look at River Discharge Estimation From SWOT Satellite Observations
Abstract The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite has the potential to transform global hydrologic science by offering simultaneous and synoptic estimates of river discharge and other hydraulic variables. Discharge is estimated from SWOT observations of water surface elevation, width, and slope. A first assessment using just the highest quality SWOT measurements, over the first 15 months (March 2023–July 2024) of the mission evaluated at 65 gauged reaches shows results consistent with pre‐launch expectations. SWOT estimates track discharge dynamics without relying on any gauge information: median correlation is 0.73, with a correlation interquartile range of 0.51–0.89. SWOT estimates capture discharge magnitude correctly in some cases but are biased (median bias is 50%) in others. There are already a total of 11,274 ungauged global locations with highest quality SWOT measurements where SWOT discharge is expected to accurately track discharge variations: this value will increase as SWOT data record length grows, algorithms are refined and SWOT measurements are reprocessed. This first look indicates that SWOT discharge is performing as expected for SWOT data that achieve performance requirements, providing observed information on discharge variations in ungauged basins globally.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2327502
- PAR ID:
- 10645560
- Author(s) / Creator(s):
- ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; more »
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Volume:
- 52
- Issue:
- 9
- ISSN:
- 0094-8276
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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