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1. Value of accurate urban weather prediction in the day-ahead energy market

   Choi, B.; Bergés, M.; Pozzi, M. (August 2023, ICASP14 - 14th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering)

   Hot temperatures drive excessive energy use for space-cooling in built environments. In a building, a system operator could save costs by making better decisions under the uncertainties associated with urban temperature and future energy demands. In this paper, we assess the impact of urban weather modeling on energy cost, using a value of information (VoI) analysis, in a day-ahead (DA) electricity market. To do that, we combine two probabilistic models: (a) a model for forecasting urban temperature and (b) a model for forecasting hourly net electric load of a building given ambient urban temperature. We then quantify the impact of better urban weather modeling by propagating the uncertainty from the temperature model to the load forecasting model. We perform a numerical case study on residential building prototypes located in the city of Pittsburgh. The result indicates that using a better weather model could save 4.34-8.22% of the electricity costs for space-cooling. 

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2. Electric Load Forecasting Using Multiple Output Gaussian Processes and Multiple Kernel Learning

   https://doi.org/10.1109/isiea58478.2023.10212291  

   Ghasempour, Alireza; Martínez-Ramón, Manel (July 2023, 2023 IEEE Symposium on Industrial Electronics & Applications (ISIEA))

   Electric load forecasting refers to forecasting the electricity demand at aggregated levels. Utilities use the predictions of this technique to keep a balance between electricity generation and consumption at each time and make accurate decision for power system planning, operations, and maintenance, etc. Based on prediction time horizon, electric load forecasting is classified to very short-term, short-term, medium-term, and long-term. In this paper, a multiple output Gaussian processes with multiple kernel learning is proposed to predict short-term electric load forecasting (predicting 24 load values for the next day) based on load, temperature, and dew point values of previous days. Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is used as a measure of prediction accuracy. By comparing MAPE values of the proposed method with the persistence method, it can been seen that the proposed method improves the persistence method MAPE up to 4%. 

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3. Advanced electricity load forecasting combining electricity and transportation network

   https://doi.org/10.1109/NAPS.2017.8107312  

   Madhavi, K. S.; Cordova, Jose; Ulak, Mehmet Baran; Ohlsen, Michael; Ozguven, Eren E.; Arghandeh, Reza; Kocatepe, Ayberk (September 2017, 2017 North American Power Symposium (NAPS))

   Abstract: Load forecasting plays a very crucial role in many aspects of electric power systems including the economic and social benefits. Previously, there have been many studies involving load forecasting using time series approach, including weather-load relationships. In one such approach to predict load, this paper investigates through different structures that aim to relate various daily parameters. These parameters include temperature, humidity and solar radiation that comprises the weather data. Along with natural phenomenon as weather, physical aspects such as traffic flow are also considered. Based on the relationship, a prediction algorithm is applied to check if prediction error decreases when such external factors are considered. Electricity consumption data is collected from the City of Tallahassee utilities. Traffic count is provided by the Florida Department of Transportation. Moreover, the weather data is obtained from Tallahassee regional Airport weather station. This paper aims to study and establish a cause and effect relationship between the mentioned variables using different causality models and to forecast load based on the external variables. Based on the relationship, a prediction algorithm is applied to check if prediction error decreases when such external factors are considered. 

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4. Modeling and Evaluating Beneficial Matches between Excess Renewable Power Generation and Non-Electric Heat Loads in Remote Alaska Microgrids

   https://doi.org/10.3390/su14073884  

   Bolt, Grace; Wilber, Michelle; Huang, Daisy; Sambor, Daniel J.; Aggarwal, Srijan; Whitney, Erin (April 2022, Sustainability)

   Many Alaska communities rely on heating oil for heat and diesel fuel for electricity. For remote communities, fuel must be barged or flown in, leading to high costs. While renewable energy resources may be available, the variability of wind and solar energy limits the amount that can be used coincidentally without adequate storage. This study developed a decision-making method to evaluate beneficial matches between excess renewable generation and non-electric dispatchable loads, specifically heat loads such as space heating, water heating and treatment, and clothes drying in three partner communities. Hybrid Optimization Model for Multiple Electric Renewables (HOMER) Pro was used to model potential excess renewable generation based on current generation infrastructure, renewable resource data, and community load. The method then used these excess generation profiles to quantify how closely they align with modeled or actual heat loads, which have inherent thermal storage capacity. Of 236 possible combinations of solar and wind capacity investigated in the three communities, the best matches were seen between excess electricity from high-penetration wind generation and heat loads for clothes drying and space heating. The worst matches from this study were from low penetrations of solar (25% of peak load) with all heat loads. 

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5. Equilibrium analysis of electricity markets with day-ahead market power mitigation and real-time intercept bidding

   https://doi.org/10.1145/3538637.3538839  

   Bansal, Rajni Kant; Chen, Yue; You, Pengcheng; Mallada, Enrique (June 2022, Proceedings of the Thirteenth ACM International Conference on Future Energy Systems (e-Energy))

   Electricity markets are cleared by a two-stage, sequential process consisting of a forward (day-ahead) market and a spot (real-time) market. While their design goal is to achieve efficiency, the lack of sufficient competition introduces many opportunities for price manipulation. To discourage this phenomenon, some Independent System Operators (ISOs) mandate generators to submit (approximately) truthful bids in the day-ahead market. However, without fully accounting for all participants' incentives (generators and loads), the application of such a mandate may lead to unintended consequences. In this paper, we model and study the interactions of generators and inelastic loads in a two-stage settlement where generators are required to bid truthfully in the day-ahead market. We show that such mandate, when accounting for generator and load incentives, leads to a {generalized} Stackelberg-Nash game where load decisions (leaders) are performed in day-ahead market and generator decisions (followers) are relegated to the real-time market. Furthermore, the use of conventional supply function bidding for generators in real-time, does not guarantee the existence of a Nash equilibrium. This motivates the use of intercept bidding, as an alternative bidding mechanism for generators in the real-time market. An equilibrium analysis in this setting, leads to a closed-form solution that unveils several insights. Particularly, it shows that, unlike standard two-stage markets, loads are the winners of the competition in the sense that their aggregate payments are less than that of the competitive equilibrium. Moreover, heterogeneity in generators cost has the unintended effect of mitigating loads market power. Numerical studies validate and further illustrate these insights. 

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