Abstract Large stocks of soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) in northern permafrost soils are vulnerable to remobilization under climate change. However, there are large uncertainties in present‐day greenhouse gas (GHG) budgets. We compare bottom‐up (data‐driven upscaling and process‐based models) and top‐down (atmospheric inversion models) budgets of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) as well as lateral fluxes of C and N across the region over 2000–2020. Bottom‐up approaches estimate higher land‐to‐atmosphere fluxes for all GHGs. Both bottom‐up and top‐down approaches show a sink of CO2in natural ecosystems (bottom‐up: −29 (−709, 455), top‐down: −587 (−862, −312) Tg CO2‐C yr−1) and sources of CH4(bottom‐up: 38 (22, 53), top‐down: 15 (11, 18) Tg CH4‐C yr−1) and N2O (bottom‐up: 0.7 (0.1, 1.3), top‐down: 0.09 (−0.19, 0.37) Tg N2O‐N yr−1). The combined global warming potential of all three gases (GWP‐100) cannot be distinguished from neutral. Over shorter timescales (GWP‐20), the region is a net GHG source because CH4dominates the total forcing. The net CO2sink in Boreal forests and wetlands is largely offset by fires and inland water CO2emissions as well as CH4emissions from wetlands and inland waters, with a smaller contribution from N2O emissions. Priorities for future research include the representation of inland waters in process‐based models and the compilation of process‐model ensembles for CH4and N2O. Discrepancies between bottom‐up and top‐down methods call for analyses of how prior flux ensembles impact inversion budgets, more and well‐distributed in situ GHG measurements and improved resolution in upscaling techniques.
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This content will become publicly available on October 1, 2026
Wetland Dissolved Organic Matter Fluorescence, Morphology, and Surrounding Land Use Linked to CH 4 and N 2 O Concentrations in Agricultural Landscapes
Abstract Freshwater wetlands process large amounts of nutrients originating from agricultural fields. Yet, these systems also have the potential to produce substantial amounts of nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4), both potent greenhouse gasses (GHGs). Agricultural land use alters delivery of nutrients and carbon (C) to downstream wetlands, and changing climate is altering hydroperiods. These drivers modulate wetland microbial processes responsible for GHG production including denitrification and methanogenesis. Studies have correlated GHGs to C quantity and nutrients independently; fewer studies identify how nutrients and C composition interact to modulate GHG concentrations in wetlands. In wetlands located in Indiana, USA, we studied how CH4, N2O, and carbon dioxide (CO2) correlated to C quantity and composition, nutrient concentrations, size, hydrology, and surrounding agricultural land use. CH4production was correlated to dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations and composition using UV‐Vis spectroscopy. CH4concentrations were positively correlated to spectral slope from 275 to 295 nm, an indicator of autochthonous primary production, and negatively correlated to humification index. N2O concentrations positively correlated to total dissolved nitrogen and humification index (HIX). CH4concentrations were highest in the large wetland with negligible canopy cover, dense macrophytes and algae, and high concentrations of autochthonous‐like DOC. Thus, we suspect phototrophic methanogenesis is an important driver of CH4variation across systems. Concentrations of N2O were highest in the agricultural wetland, likely driven by higher NO3−concentrations. Our findings suggest agricultural nutrients strongly shift greenhouse gas production profiles but do not necessarily increase global warming potential of GHGs released by wetlands.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2106111
- PAR ID:
- 10648414
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences
- Volume:
- 130
- Issue:
- 10
- ISSN:
- 2169-8953
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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