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1. Climate and hydrologic change across the Great Lakes region and other transboundary waters

   https://doi.org/10.56367/OAG-047-11487  

   Steinschneider, Scott; Arain, M Altaf; Coulibaly, Paulin; Gronewold, Andrew D; Krantzberg, Gail (January 2025, Open Access Government)

   Climate and hydrologic change across the Great Lakes region and other transboundary watersScott Steinschneider, M. Altaf Arain, Paulin Coulibaly, Andrew Gronewold, and Gail Krantzberg, explore climate and hydrologic change across the Great Lakes region in North America and other transboundary waters. Hydroclimate extremes are transforming water landscapes in transboundary regions. These systems are particularly susceptible to hydroclimatic variability due to shared governance structures, interconnected ecosystems, and a wide range of water users. The Great Lakes basin – one of the world’s largest freshwater systems, shared by Canada, the United States, and numerous Indigenous sovereign nations – exemplifies how shifting hydroclimatic conditions are challenging conventional approaches to water management across borders. In this region, the impacts of these changes are evident in increased flooding, shoreline erosion, economic disruption, ecosystem stress, and rising uncertainty surrounding water availability and quality. 

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2. Predicting the suitable habitat distribution of berry plants under climate change

   https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-024-01839-7  

   Hamilton, Casey W.; Smithwick, Erica A. H.; Spellman, Katie V.; Baltensperger, Andrew P.; Spellman, Blaine T.; Chi, Guangqing (February 2024, Landscape Ecology)

   Abstract ContextClimate change is altering suitable habitat distributions of many species at high latitudes. Fleshy fruit-producing plants (hereafter, “berry plants”) are important in arctic food webs and as subsistence resources for human communities, but their response to a warming and increasingly variable climate at a landscape scale has not yet been examined. ObjectivesWe aimed to identify environmental determinants of berry plant distribution and predict how climate change might shift these distributions. MethodsWe used species distribution models to identify characteristics and predict the distribution of suitable habitat under current (2006–2013) and future climate conditions (2081–2100; representative concentration pathways 4.5, 6.0, & 8.5) for five berry plant species:Vaccinium uliginosumL.,Empetrum nigrumL.,Rubus chamaemorusL.,Vaccinium vitis-idaeaL., andViburnum edule(Michx.) Raf.. ResultsElevation, soil characteristics, and January and July temperatures were important drivers of habitat distributions. Future suitable habitat predictions showed net declines in suitable habitat area for all species modeled under almost all future climate scenarios tested. ConclusionsOur work contributes to understanding potential geographic shifts in suitable berry plant habitat with climate change at a landscape scale. Shifting and retracting distributions may alter where communities can harvest, suggesting that access to these resources may become restricted in the future. Our prediction maps may help inform climate adaptation planning as communities anticipate shifting access to harvesting locations. 

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3. TOWARDS FOOD SOVEREIGNTY: THE ROLE OF SMALLHOLDER FARMERS’ SEED SECURITY IN IMPROVING CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE IN NORTHERN MALAWI

   https://doi.org/10.1080/00167428.2024.2335395  

   Amoak, Daniel; Lupafya, Esther; Dakishoni, Laifolo; Luginaah, Isaac (April 2024, Geographical Review)

   With climate extreme events increasing in frequency and intensity in Malawi, the future of local food production faces serious threats, necessitating renewed efforts to build the adaptive capabilities of the majority poor smallholder farmers. In this context, seed security is critical to improving rural livelihoods and agrobiodiversity; however, knowledge of its role in climate change resilience is sparse. Drawing insights from vulnerability and resilience literature, this paper examines the role of seed security in enhancing climate change resilience in northern Malawi. Using a cross-sectional survey of 1,090 smallholder farmers and applying logistic regression analysis, the study found that households that are seed-secure were significantly more likely to report stronger resilience to climate change than those that were not seed-secure, even after controlling for theoretically relevant variables (OR = 1.89; p < .01). Other noteworthy predictors of climate change resilience included level of education, wealth, agroecological practice, and seed sources. Based on the findings, we advocate for promoting seed security as part of broader localized and place-specific action plans to foster resilience to climate change in agricultural regions. 

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4. Ecohydrological Response of a Tropical Peatland to Rainfall Changes Driven by Intertropical Convergence Zone Variability

   https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.15051  

   Swindles, Graeme T; Whitney, Bronwen S; Gałka, Mariusz; Mullan, Donal J; Low, Rob; Gallego‐Sala, Angela; Lopez, R Omar; Kilbride, Elliot; Graham, Conor; Baird, Andy J (December 2024, Journal of Biogeography)

   ABSTRACT AimTropical peatlands are globally significant carbon stores, increasingly threatened by human activities and climate change. However, their ecohydrological responses to shifting water availability remain poorly understood. In this study, we investigate the connections between climate change, hydrology and vegetation dynamics in a coastal tropical peatland in Panama, aiming to understand the effects of future drying on peatland dynamics. LocationBocas del Toro, Panama (9°22′54″N, 82°21′59″W). TaxonAngiosperms. MethodsHigh‐resolution multiproxy palaeoecological data, including pollen and plant macrofossils (vegetation), testate amoebae (water‐table depth) and physical peat properties, are used to explore the relationships between climate change, hydrology and vegetation in a coastal tropical peatland over the past 700 years. Downscaled climate simulations are integrated with this process‐based understanding to project the likely future responses of this coastal peatland to climate change. ResultsWe identify a clear connection between precipitation variability, driven by shifts in the Intertropical Convergence Zone and water‐table dynamics, which subsequently influence changes in the peatland vegetation mosaic. Historical drier periods are marked by the expansion of shrub communities into the open peatland plain. Main ConclusionsPalaeoecological studies incorporating climate and hydrological proxies are essential for understanding both recent and future ecohydrological dynamics of tropical peatlands. Our findings suggest that in response to future climate change, water tables will lower and shrub communities will expand due to rising temperatures and reduced precipitation. Additionally, future sea‐level rise, combined with declining rainfall, may result in seawater intrusion and significant vegetation shifts in coastal tropical peatlands. 

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5. Identifying Major Hydrologic Change Drivers in a Highly Managed Transboundary Endorheic Basin: Integrating Hydro‐Ecological Models and Time Series Data Mining Techniques

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2022WR032281  

   Acero Triana, Juan S.; Ajami, Hoori (August 2022, Water Resources Research)

   Abstract The fragile balance of endorheic lakes in highly managed semiarid basins with transboundary water issues has been altered by the intertwined effects of global warming and long‐term water mismanagement to support agricultural and industrial demand. The alarming rate of global endorheic lakes' depletion in recent decades necessitates formulating mitigation strategies for ecosystem restoration. However, detecting and quantifying the relative contribution of causal factors (climate variability and anthropogenic stressors) is challenging. This study developed a diagnostic multivariate framework to identify major hydrologic drivers of lake depletion in a highly managed endorheic basin with a complex water distribution system. The framework integrates the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) simulations with time series decomposition and clustering methods to identify the major drivers of change. This diagnostic framework was applied to the Salton Sea Transboundary Basin (SSTB), the host of the world's most impaired inland lake. The results showed signs of depletion across the SSTB since late 1998 with no significant changes in climate conditions. The time series data mining of the SSTB water balance components indicated that decreases in lake tributary inflows (−16.4 Mm³yr⁻²) in response to decline in Colorado River inflows, associated with state water transfer agreements, are causing the Salton Sea to shrink, not changes in the irrigation operation as commonly believed. The developed multivariate detection and attribution framework is useful for identifying major drivers of change in coupled natural human systems. 

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