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Title: Environmental influences on population-level reproductive output of Weddell seals Leptonychotes weddellii in the Ross Sea, Antarctica
The Ross Sea in the Southern Ocean is frequently considered one of the most pristine ecosystems in the world, but recent data suggest that changes to oceanic conditions may be impacting wildlife abundance. We used 41 yr of data to assess how variation in biologically relevant environmental conditions relates to annual reproductive output for the world’s largest population of Weddell sealsLeptonychotes weddellii, an upper-level predator in the Ross Sea. Pup production increased 150% across the time series, and interannual variation tripled. Linear regression analyses, which explained 73.7% of the variance in pup production, supported a non-linear, convex relationship between reproductive output and summer sea ice extent, with more pups born in years with more or less sea ice than in years with intermediate ice extent. While total annual toothfish catch 7 yr previous appears to be positively associated with reproductive output, a similar amount of variation in pup production could be explained by an alternative model with a linear, temporal trend. Our results highlight a sizable increase in the reproductive output of this demographically buffered polar marine predator. The increase in pup production may be the result of competitive release due to commercial fishing, cascading ecological effects from commercial fishing or other environmental shifts, or population inertia from a few large birth cohorts. It is challenging to disentangle these hypotheses with the current publicly available environmental data. Future demographic analyses and collaborative research are needed to understand how environmental changes are impacting marine populations in this ecosystem.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2147553 1640481
PAR ID:
10651748
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ;
Publisher / Repository:
Inter-Research Science Publisher
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Marine Ecology Progress Series
Volume:
771
ISSN:
0171-8630
Page Range / eLocation ID:
139 to 154
Subject(s) / Keyword(s):
Pinniped Population dynamics Pup production Sea ice Southern Ocean Long-term data series
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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