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This content will become publicly available on April 15, 2026

Title: Regional Multiyear Predictability of Antarctic Sea Ice in CESM2 and Its Implications for Marine Ecosystems
Abstract Antarctic sea ice exhibits considerable regional variability that is influenced by ocean and atmospheric conditions. Previous studies have suggested that this variability may be predictable on seasonal-to-interannual time scales. Here, we use initial-value predictability experiments of the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), paired with analysis of the CESM2 large ensemble, to further assess the inherent predictability in regional Antarctic sea ice conditions. As in previous studies, we find that Antarctic sea ice area predictability is high for several months after initialization. It is then lost when ice retreats, and predictability is regained in the following ice advance period. In our simulations, this process acts on multiyear time scales with little sensitivity to the seasonal initialization timing but has a strong regional dependence. Long-lived ocean temperature anomalies in the vicinity of the winter ice edge are the primary source of sea ice predictability. Different predictability characteristics occur across regions, depending on how these ocean temperature anomalies are advected relative to regional sea zones. Our results show that sea ice predictability can impart predictability to primary productivity in the Southern Ocean due to its impact on light availability. This has implications for the understanding and management of Southern Ocean marine ecosystems.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2037531
PAR ID:
10652759
Author(s) / Creator(s):
 ;  ;  ;  
Publisher / Repository:
AMS
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Journal of Climate
Volume:
38
Issue:
8
ISSN:
0894-8755
Page Range / eLocation ID:
1961 to 1979
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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