Data for: Predicting the contribution of single trait evolution to rescuing a plant population from demographic impacts of climate change

Campbell, Diane; Powers, John; Kipness, Justin; Laboratory, Rocky_Mountain Biological

doi:10.5061/dryad.ht76hdrtn

{"Abstract":["Evolutionary adaptation can allow a population to persist in the face of a\n new environmental challenge. With many populations now threatened by\n environmental change, it is important to understand whether this process\n of evolutionary rescue is feasible under natural conditions, yet work on\n this topic has been largely theoretical. We used unique long-term data to\n parameterize deterministic and stochastic models of the contribution of\n one trait to evolutionary rescue using field estimates for the subalpine\n plant Ipomopsis aggregata and hybrids with its close relative I.\n tenuituba. In the absence of evolution or plasticity, the two studied\n populations are projected to go locally extinct due to earlier snowmelt\n under climate change, which imposes drought conditions. Phenotypic\n selection on specific leaf area (SLA) was estimated in 12 years and\n multiple populations. Those data on selection and its environmental\n sensitivity to annual snowmelt timing in the spring were combined with\n previous data on heritability of the trait, phenotypic plasticity of the\n trait, and the impact of snowmelt timing on mean absolute fitness.\n Selection favored low values of SLA (thicker leaves). The evolutionary\n response to selection on that single trait was insufficient to allow\n evolutionary rescue by itself, but in combination with phenotypic\n plasticity it promoted evolutionary rescue in one of the two populations.\n The number of years until population size would stop declining and begin\n to rise again was heavily dependent upon stochastic environmental changes\n in snowmelt timing around the trend line. Our study illustrates how field\n estimates of quantitative genetic parameters can be used to predict the\n likelihood of evolutionary rescue. Although a complete set of parameter\n estimates are generally unavailable, it may also be possible to predict\n the general likelihood of evolutionary rescue based on published ranges\n for phenotypic selection and heritability and the extent to which early\n snowmelt impacts fitness."],"Methods":["The study sites consisted of three “Poverty Gulch” sites in\n Gunnsion National Forest and one site “Vera Falls” at the Rocky Mountain\n Biological Laboratory, all in Gunnison County, CO, USA. Focal plants\n included two sets of plants. One set (data from 2009-2019) consisted of\n plants in common gardens at three sites: an I. aggregata\n site (hereafter “agg”), an I. tenuituba\n site (hereafter “ten”) and a site at the center of the natural\n hybrid zone (hereafter “hyb”). The second set consisted of plants growing\n in situ at two of the same Poverty Gulch sites (“agg” and “hyb”), and\n an I. aggregata site at Vera Falls (hereafter “VF”;\n data from 2017-2023). The common gardens were started\n from seed in 2007 and 2008. Measurements of SLA in these gardens began\n when plants were 2 years old, either 2009 or 2010 depending upon the\n garden, as they are only small seedlings during their first summer after\n seed maturation. By 2018, all but 15 of the 4512 plants originally planted\n had died, with or without blooming, and we stopped following these\n gardens. Starting in 2017, in situ vegetative plants at the I.\n aggregata site and the hybrid site whose longest leaf exceeded\n 25 mm were marked with metal tags to facilitate\n identification. In each year of the study, one leaf\n from each vegetative plant was collected in the field and transported on\n ice to the RMBL, 8 km distant. There each leaf was scanned with a flatbed\n scanner and analyzed using ImageJ to measure leaf area. The leaf was dried\n at 70 deg C for 2 hours and then weighed to obtain dry mass and calculate\n SLA as area/dry mass. For plants in the common gardens, SLA was measured\n on 982 leaves from 383 plants in 2009 – 2014. For in situ plants, SLA was\n measured on one leaf from each of 877 plants in 2017 – 2022. Fitness was\n estimated as the binary variable of survival to flowering. Plants that\n were still alive in 2019 in the common gardens or in 2023 at the end of\n the study were assumed to survive to flowering. These\n data were used to estimate selection differentials on SLA in each of 12\n years. We then combined this information with previous information on\n heritability and the effect of snowmelt date in the spring on mean\n absolute fitness, measured as the finite rate of population increase, from\n a previous demographic study. This information was used to parameterize\n models of evolutionary rescue that we developed. We developed two models\n that differed in how snowmelt timing changed: a Step-change model and a\n Gradual environmental change model and analyzed both deterministic and\n stochastic versions. All analysis and modeling was done in R ver\n 4.2.2. "],"TechnicalInfo":["# Data for: Predicting the contribution of single trait evolution to\n rescuing a plant population from demographic impacts of climate change\n Dataset DOI: [10.5061/dryad.ht76hdrtn](10.5061/dryad.ht76hdrtn) ##\n Description of the data and file structure File\n "mastervegtraitsSLA2023.csv" contains data on specific leaf area\n for Ipomopsis plants in the field. Files\n "masterdemography_insitu_2023.csv" and\n "masterdemography_commongarden.csv" provide the corresponding\n information on survival to flowering. File "snowmelt.csv"\n provides dates of snowmelt in the spring. File\n "selection_vs_snowmelt.csv" provides intermediate results on\n selection intensities from analysis with the first parts of the code\n "Campbell-EvolutionLettersMay2025.Rmd". File\n "IPMresults.csv" provides estimates of the finite rate of\n increase (lambda) predicted from the publication by Campbell\n [https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1820096116](https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1820096116) File "Campbell-EvolutionLettersMay2025.Rmd" provides the R code for statistical analysis and the deterministic and stochastic models of evolutionary rescue. All data analysis and modeling was done in R ver. 4.4.2 on a Windows machine. All necessary input data files are provided. The R code is annotated to indicate which portions produce analyses and figures in the manuscript. For the multipart figures 6-9 the code needs to be manually updated to produce each part of the figure before assembling them. In those cases, each part represents a model with a unique set of parameters. ### Files and variables #### File: Data\\_files\\_for\\_EVL\\_Campbell\\_2025.zip **Description:** All data files Blank cells are indicated by "." except in "selection_vs_snowmelt.csv" where they are indicated by "NA" **File:** mastervegtraitsSLA2023.csv * meltday = first day of bare ground at the Rocky Mountain Biological Lab (RMBL) in units of days starting with January 1 * year = year * site = site. agg = site with I. aggregata. hyb = site with natural hybrids. ten = site with I. tenuituba. VF = Vera Falls site containing I. aggregata. * idtag = metal tag used to identify plant * planttype = type of plant. AA = progeny of I. aggregata x I. aggregata. AT = progeny of I. aggregata x I. tenuituba. TA = progeny of I. tenuituba x I. aggregata. TT = progeny of I. tenuituba x I. tenuituba. F2 = progeny of F1 (either AT or TA) x F1. agg = natural I. aggregata. hyb = natural hybrid. * sla = specific leaf area in units of cm2/g * uniqueid = an id used to identify the plant uniquely across all years and sites **File:** masterdemography\\_insitu\\_2023.csv * site = site. agg = site with I. aggregata. hyb = site with hybrids. VF = Vera Falls site containing I. aggregata. * idtag = metal tag used to identify plant * yeartagged = year the plant was first tagged * flrlabelxx = label for plants flowering in year 20xx * stagexxxx = stage in year xxxx. 0 = dead. 1 = single vegetative rosette. 2 = single inflorescence. 3 = multiple vegetative rosette. 4 = multiple inflorescence. * lengthxx = length of longest leaf in year 20xx in mm * leavesxx = number of leaves in rosette(s) in year 20xx **File:** masterdemography_commongarden.csv * site = site. agg = site with I. aggregata. hyb = site with natural hybrids. ten = site with I. tenuituba. * IDTAG = metal tag used to identify plant * Planttype = type of plant. AA = progeny of I. aggregata x I. aggregata. AT = progeny of I. aggregata x I. tenuituba. TA = progeny of I. tenuituba x I. aggregata. TT = progeny of I. tenuituba x I. tenuituba. F2full = full-sib progeny of F1 (either AT or TA) x F1. F2non = non full-sib progeny of F1 x F1. * stagexx = stage of plant in year 20xx. 0 = dead. 1 = single vegetative rosette. 2 = single inflorescence. 3 = multiple vegetative rosette. 4 = multiple inflorescence. * lengthxx = length of longest leaf in year 20xx in mm. * leavesxx = number of leaves in rosette(s) in year 20xx. **File:** snowmelt.csv * Year = year * Snowmelt = day of first bare ground at the RMBL in units of day starting with January 1. Values prior to 1975 were estimated. **File:** selection*vs*snowmelt.csv * meltday = day of first bare ground at the RMBL in units of day starting with January 1. * year = year * Sbyyearwithsite = standardized selection differential on SLA in model that includes site. These values are reproduced with standard errors in Table 1. * bwithsite = regression coefficient for raw survival on raw SLA in model that includes site. * meansurv = mean survival * covwsla = raw selection differential on SLA * bwithsitehyb = regression coefficient for raw survival on SLA at site hyb * meansurvhyb = mean survival at site hyb * covwslahyb = raw selection differential on SLA at site hyb used in the Gradual environmental change model * covwslaagg = raw selection differential on SLA at site agg used in the Gradual environmental change model * meansurvagg = mean survival at site agg * melthyb = estimated date of bare ground at site hyb * meltagg = estimated date of bare ground at site agg **File:** IPMresults.csv * site = site. agg = site with I. aggregata. hyb = site with natural hybrids. * day = predicted day of snowmelt (all predictions are from Campbell, D. R. 2019. Early snowmelt projected to cause population decline in a subalpine plant. PNAS (USA) 116(26) 1290-12906.) Units are days starting with January 1. * lambda = predicted finite rate of increase **File:** Campbell-EvolutionLettersMay2025.Rmd Contains R code for data analysis and modeling. All analysis and modeling was done in R ver 4.2.2."]}

More Like this