The seminal work of Jonung (1981) showed that households' perceptions of inflation are the strongest predictor of households' inflation expectations. This fact has been a key ingredient for testing and developing theoretical models of how economic agents form expectations (e.g., the famous Lucas (1972) island model). However, little is known about whether perceptions play a similar role for firms. Using a new survey of American CEOs, we document that inflation perceptions shape the inflation expectations of firms just as Jonung (1981) found for households. These results suggest that information rigidities apply not only for households but also for CEOs.
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Tell Me Something I Don't Already Know: Learning in Low‐ and High‐Inflation Settings
Using randomized control trials (RCTs) applied over time in different countries, we study whether the economic environment affects how agents learn from new information. We show that as inflation rose in advanced economies, both households and firms became more attentive and informed about publicly available news about inflation, leading them to respond less to exogenously provided information about inflation and monetary policy. We also study the effects of RCTs in countries where inflation has been consistently high (Uruguay) and low (New Zealand) as well as what happens when the same agents are repeatedly provided information in both low‐ and high‐inflation environments (Italy). Our results broadly support models in which inattention is an endogenous outcome that depends on the economic environment.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1919307
- PAR ID:
- 10653155
- Publisher / Repository:
- The Econometric Society
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Econometrica
- Volume:
- 93
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 0012-9682
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 229 to 264
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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