Abstract The evolutionary fate of multi-strain pathogens is shaped by host-pathogen ecological interactions. In bacterial pathogens of plants, enhanced strain characterization and advances in our understanding of molecular mechanisms underlying defense pathways open the door for revisiting the role of negative frequency-dependent selection (NFDS) in strain structure, including its interplay with genetic exchange. NFDS arising from specific defense is one potential mechanism for generating, maintaining, and structuring pathogen diversity. In plants, specific protection against microbial pathogens involves Resistance proteins (R-proteins) that recognize virulence factors (effectors) secreted by pathogens, typically to subvert the initial line of host defense. Here we formulate a stochastic computational co-evolution model that explicitly incorporates variable length R-gene and effector repertoires, and migration from their regional pools. We use this model to understand potential mechanisms shaping effector repertoire structure and associated strain coexistence in the generalist plant pathogenP. syringae. The demonstration of a modular structure in our numerical simulations motivates the analysis of genome sequences from 76 strains collected in the Midwestern US and 1104 strains from global sources. We find that effector repertories both locally and globally exhibit a modular structure, with higher similarity within than between clusters. The observed modules are consistent with the core genome phylogeny and are unexplained by plant host species, location of isolation, and genetic linkage between effectors. An extension of the model is needed to take into account the evidence for genetic exchange and the phylogenetic congruence of effector modules. We initialize the system with a phylogenetically congruent modular structure and include recombination rates decreasing as a function of phylogenetic distance. We show that NFDS can counter-balance the effects of mixing due to recombination and in so doing, contributes to the maintenance of strain structure. These findings indicate that the observed similarity clusters may constitute, in part, emergent niches arising from eco-evolutionary dynamics that contribute to strain coexistence.
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Predicting pathogen mutual invasibility and co-circulation
Observations of pathogen community structure provide evidence for both the coexistence and replacement of related strains. Despite many studies of specific host-pathogen systems, a unifying framework for predicting the outcomes of interactions among pathogens has remained elusive. We address this gap by developing a pathogen invasion theory (PIT) based on modern ecological coexistence theory and testing the resulting framework against empirical systems. Across major human pathogens, PIT predicts near-universal mutual susceptibility of one strain to invasion by another strain. However, predicting co-circulation from mutual invasion also depends on the degree to which susceptible abundance is reduced below the invasion threshold by overcompensatory epidemic dynamics, and the time it takes for susceptibles to replenish. The transmission advantage of an invading strain and the strength and duration of immunity are key determinants of susceptible dynamics. PIT unifies existing ideas about pathogen co-circulation, offering a quantitative framework for predicting the emergence of novel pathogen strains.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2022213
- PAR ID:
- 10653266
- Publisher / Repository:
- AAAS
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Science
- Volume:
- 386
- Issue:
- 6718
- ISSN:
- 0036-8075
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 175 to 179
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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