Emerging infectious diseases can have devastating effects on host communities, causing population collapse and species extinctions. The timing of novel pathogen arrival into naïve species communities can have consequential effects that shape the trajectory of epidemics through populations. Pathogen introductions are often presumed to occur when hosts are highly mobile. However, spread patterns can be influenced by a multitude of other factors including host body condition and infectiousness. White‐nose syndrome (WNS) is a seasonal emerging infectious disease of bats, which is caused by the fungal pathogen We found that midwinter arrival of the fungus predominated spread patterns, suggesting that bats were most likely to spread Our results suggest that low infectiousness during host migration may have reduced the rate of expansion of this deadly pathogen, and that elevated infectiousness during winter plays a key role in seasonal transmission. Furthermore, our results highlight the importance of both accurate estimation of the timing of pathogen spread and the consequences of varying arrival times to prevent and mitigate the effects of infectious diseases.
- Award ID(s):
- 1748729
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10180700
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
- Volume:
- 287
- Issue:
- 1922
- ISSN:
- 0962-8452
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 20200046
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2020.0046
