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Abstract. Plant wax n-alkane chain length distribution and isotopeshave been studied in modern ecosystems as proxies to reconstruct vegetationand climate of the past. However, most paleo-proxies focus on eitherconcentrations or isotopes, whereas both carry complementary information onthe mixing sources. We propose a multi-source mixing model in a Bayesianframework that evaluates both chain length distributions and isotopessimultaneously. The model consists of priors that include user-definedsource groups and their associated parametric distributions of n-alkaneconcentration and δ13C. The mixing process involves newlydefined mixing fractions such as fractional leaf mass contribution (FLMC)that can be used in vegetation reconstruction. Markov Chain Monte Carlo isused to generate samples from the posterior distribution of these parametersconditioned on both data types. We present three case studies from distinctsettings. The first involves n-C27, n-C29, and n-C31 alkanes in lake surface sediments of Lake Qinghai, China. The model provides more specific interpretations on the n-alkane input from aquatic sources than the conventional Paq proxy. The second involves n-C29, n-C31, and n-C33 alkanes in lake surface sediments in Cameroon, western Africa. Themodel produces mixing fractions of forest C3, savanna C3, andC4 plants, offering additional information on the dominant biomescompared to the traditional two-end-member mixing regime. The third couplesthe vegetation source model to a hydrogen isotope model component, usingbiome-specific apparent fractionation factors (εa) toestimate the δ2H of mean annual precipitation. By leveraging chain length distribution, δ13C, and δ2H data offour n-alkane chains, the model produces estimated precipitation δ2H with relatively small uncertainty limits. The new framework shows promise for interpretation of paleo-data but could be further improved by including processes associated with n-alkane turnover in plants, transport,and integration into sedimentary archives. Future studies on modern plantsand catchment systems will be critical to develop calibration datasets thatadvance the strength and utility of the framework.
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clhancock/DAMP21ka: DAMP21ka
DAMP21ka.nc: NetCDF file containing the model prior, proxy values, and DAMP21ka reconstruction for lake status, precipitation, and temperature variables.\n\nclhancock/DAMP21ka-v1.0.0.zip: Notebooks used to generate figures for Hancock et al. (2024)\n\nHolocene-code_development_hydroclimate.zip: Code used to generate the DAMP21ka reconstruction \n\n \n\nHancock, C. L., Erb, M. P., McKay, N. P., Dee, S. G., and Ivanovic, R.: A global Data Assimilation of Moisture Patterns from 21,000–0 BP (DAMP-21ka) using lake level proxy records"
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- Award ID(s):
- 1903548
- PAR ID:
- 10656707
- Publisher / Repository:
- Zenodo
- Date Published:
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Right(s):
- Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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