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Abstract Thermal acclimation capacity, the degree to which organisms can alter their optimal performance temperature and critical thermal limits with changing temperatures, reflects their ability to respond to temperature variability and thus might be important for coping with global climate change. Here, we combine simulation modelling with analysis of published data on thermal acclimation and breadth (range of temperatures over which organisms perform well) to develop a framework for predicting thermal plasticity across taxa, latitudes, body sizes, traits, habitats and methodological factors. Our synthesis includes > 2000 measures of acclimation capacities from > 500 species of ectotherms spanning fungi, invertebrates, and vertebrates from freshwater, marine and terrestrial habitats. We find that body size, latitude, and methodological factors often interact to shape acclimation responses and that acclimation rate scales negatively with body size, contributing to a general negative association between body size and thermal breadth across species. Additionally, we reveal that acclimation capacity increases with body size, increases with latitude (to mid‐latitudinal zones) and seasonality for smaller but not larger organisms, decreases with thermal safety margin (upper lethal temperature minus maximum environmental temperatures), and is regularly underestimated because of experimental artefacts. We then demonstrate that our framework can predict the contribution of acclimation plasticity to the IUCN threat status of amphibians globally, suggesting that phenotypic plasticity is already buffering some species from climate change.
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This content will become publicly available on October 28, 2026
Universal phylogenetic inertia in body temperature evolution across endothermic and ectothermic tetrapods
Abstract Species must adapt to persist in a changing world. As global temperatures rise, how species adapt and respond to thermal shifts is crucial for anticipating global patterns of biodiversity change. Land vertebrates can be divided into two major thermoregulatory strategies, endothermy and ectothermy. One might hypothesize that, given their reputation as being “cold blooded,” ectotherms are thermal generalists, capable of operating across a greater range of body temperatures than endotherms and exhibit greater plasticity and evolvability in body temperature. However, a wide variety of traits and ecologies could modulate responses of thermal physiology to environmental change. Here, we employ macroevolutionary models to estimate the rate of adaptation of thermal physiology across squamates, mammals, and birds in the context of their ecology, physiology, and changing climatic conditions and whether there are fundamental differences in how the three clades respond to their environments. We find stronger relationships between squamates’ body temperature and their environment than in birds and mammals, significant effects of diel activity (nocturnal and diurnal) on body temperature evolution in all clades, and no effect of aquatic/terrestrial habits and rumination on the evolution of body temperature in mammals. Most surprisingly, our findings suggest shared limits on the evolution of thermal physiology across ectothermic and endothermic groups that argue for universal constraints on the rate of evolution in thermal physiology while explaining disparate patterns of body temperature and niche evolution across groups.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1942717
- PAR ID:
- 10656882
- Publisher / Repository:
- bioRxiv
- Date Published:
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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