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Abstract Overly smooth topography in general circulation models (GCMs) underestimates the blocking effect of the steep mountain ranges flanking the eastern Pacific. We explore the impact of this bias on common biases in Pacific climate simulation [i.e., the unrealistic cross-equatorial symmetry of near-surface winds, sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and precipitation] through sensitivity experiments with modified Central and/or South American topography in an atmosphere–ocean coupled GCM. Quantifying orographic blocking potential via the Froude number, we determine that an envelope topographic interpolation scheme best captures observed blocking patterns. Implementing envelope topography only in Central America reduced model biases as greater blocking of the trade winds warmed SST and enhanced convergence in the northeastern Pacific. Doing so additionally over the Andes improved the simulation of South Pacific circulation and the South Pacific convergence zone as stronger deflection of the westerlies intensified the South Pacific anticyclone. This mitigated convection biases in the southeast Pacific by increasing subsidence and cooling SST. However, remote impacts of the Andes exacerbated the dry bias in the northeast tropical Pacific, resulting in negligible improvement in the East Pacific double-ITCZ. We find that, due to the significant role of large-scale convergence in driving precipitation patterns, other model biases, such as cloud-radiative biases, may modulate the impact of altering topography. Our results highlight the importance of considering alternate methods for calculating model topographic boundary conditions, though the optimal interpolation scheme will vary with model resolution and the impact of topography on GCM biases can be sensitive to choices made in formulating parameterizations. Significance StatementIn this study, we explore how the mountain ranges spanning Central and South America shape the climate of the Pacific by blocking large-scale midlatitude and tropical winds. We show that the height of these mountains is typically too low in climate models and that elevating them can improve patterns of rainfall, surface ocean temperatures, and near-surface winds in the Pacific. This is important because model biases in the Pacific climate limit their utility for understanding current and future climate variability. Improving the representation of blocking by mountains can thus be a simple method for reducing uncertainties in future climate projections.
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This content will become publicly available on January 16, 2027
Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Gradient Biases Shape Present‐Day and Future Precipitation Projections Over Southern Hemisphere Midlatitudes
Climate models exhibit significant biases in simulating present‐day tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) patterns, particularly the zonal SST gradient, which may contribute to uncertainties in precipitation projections over mid‐latitude populated regions. Biases in the simulated tropical Pacific SST gradient across CMIP6 models significantly influence present‐day and future winter precipitation over South America through a stationary wave pattern resembling the Pacific–South American (PSA‐2) mode. Models with a weaker‐than‐observed SST gradient simulate a deeper trough east of South America, resulting in stronger wetting trends over northern Argentina. Applying observational constraints reduces uncertainties in projected precipitation trends by approximately 31%. For Tasmania and New Zealand, SST gradient biases impact the simulation of present‐day winter precipitation, but are not well correlated with future precipitation projections. Our findings highlight the critical need to accurately represent the tropical Pacific SST gradient and its associated atmospheric circulation features for reliable regional climate simulation.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2330009
- PAR ID:
- 10658188
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley (American Geophysical Union)
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Volume:
- 53
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 0094-8276
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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