An official website of the United States government
This paper describes the formation of, and initial results for, a new FLUXNET coordination network for ecosystem-scale methane (CH 4 ) measurements at 60 sites globally, organized by the Global Carbon Project in partnership with other initiatives and regional flux tower networks. The objectives of the effort are presented along with an overview of the coverage of eddy covariance (EC) CH 4 flux measurements globally, initial results comparing CH 4 fluxes across the sites, and future research directions and needs. Annual estimates of net CH 4 fluxes across sites ranged from −0.2 ± 0.02 g C m –2 yr –1 for an upland forest site to 114.9 ± 13.4 g C m –2 yr –1 for an estuarine freshwater marsh, with fluxes exceeding 40 g C m –2 yr –1 at multiple sites. Average annual soil and air temperatures were found to be the strongest predictor of annual CH 4 flux across wetland sites globally. Water table position was positively correlated with annual CH 4 emissions, although only for wetland sites that were not consistently inundated throughout the year. The ratio of annual CH 4 fluxes to ecosystem respiration increased significantly with mean site temperature. Uncertainties in annual CH 4 estimates due to gap-filling and random errors were on average ±1.6 g C m –2 yr –1 at 95% confidence, with the relative error decreasing exponentially with increasing flux magnitude across sites. Through the analysis and synthesis of a growing EC CH 4 flux database, the controls on ecosystem CH 4 fluxes can be better understood, used to inform and validate Earth system models, and reconcile differences between land surface model- and atmospheric-based estimates of CH 4 emissions.
more »
« less
Machine Learning-Based Prediction of Ecosystem-Scale CO2 Flux Measurements
AmeriFlux is a network of hundreds of sites across the contiguous United States providing tower-based ecosystem-scale carbon dioxide flux measurements at 30 min temporal resolution. While geographically wide-ranging, over its existence the network has suffered from multiple issues including towers regularly ceasing operation for extended periods and a lack of standardization of measurements between sites. In this study, we use machine learning algorithms to predict CO2 flux measurements at NEON sites (a subset of Ameriflux sites), creating a model to gap-fill measurements when sites are down or replace measurements when they are incorrect. Machine learning algorithms also have the ability to generalize to new sites, potentially even those without a flux tower. We compared the performance of seven machine learning algorithms using 35 environmental drivers and site-specific variables as predictors. We found that Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) consistently produced the most accurate predictions (Root Mean Squared Error of 1.81 μmolm−2s−1, R2 of 0.86). The model showed excellent performance testing on sites that are ecologically similar to other sites (the Mid Atlantic, New England, and the Rocky Mountains), but poorer performance at sites with fewer ecological similarities to other sites in the data (Pacific Northwest, Florida, and Puerto Rico). The results show strong potential for machine learning-based models to make more skillful predictions than state-of-the-art process-based models, being able to estimate the multi-year mean carbon balance to within an error ±50 gCm−2y−1 for 29 of our 44 test sites. These results have significant implications for being able to accurately predict the carbon flux or gap-fill an extended outage at any AmeriFlux site, and for being able to quantify carbon flux in support of natural climate solutions.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 2105828
- PAR ID:
- 10659436
- Publisher / Repository:
- MDPI
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Land
- Volume:
- 14
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2073-445X
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 124
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Abstract Rangelands provide significant environmental benefits through many ecosystem services, which may include soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration. However, quantifying SOC stocks and monitoring carbon (C) fluxes in rangelands are challenging due to the considerable spatial and temporal variability tied to rangeland C dynamics as well as limited data availability. We developed the Rangeland Carbon Tracking and Management (RCTM) system to track long‐term changes in SOC and ecosystem C fluxes by leveraging remote sensing inputs and environmental variable data sets with algorithms representing terrestrial C‐cycle processes. Bayesian calibration was conducted using quality‐controlled C flux data sets obtained from 61 Ameriflux and NEON flux tower sites from Western and Midwestern US rangelands to parameterize the model according to dominant vegetation classes (perennial and/or annual grass, grass‐shrub mixture, and grass‐tree mixture). The resulting RCTM system produced higher model accuracy for estimating annual cumulative gross primary productivity (GPP) (R2 > 0.6, RMSE <390 g C m−2) relative to net ecosystem exchange of CO2(NEE) (R2 > 0.4, RMSE <180 g C m−2). Model performance in estimating rangeland C fluxes varied by season and vegetation type. The RCTM captured the spatial variability of SOC stocks withR2 = 0.6 when validated against SOC measurements across 13 NEON sites. Model simulations indicated slightly enhanced SOC stocks for the flux tower sites during the past decade, which is mainly driven by an increase in precipitation. Future efforts to refine the RCTM system will benefit from long‐term network‐based monitoring of vegetation biomass, C fluxes, and SOC stocks.more » « less
-
This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site US-TaS Taylor Slough/Panhandle. Site Description - This tower is located in the Florida Everglades, a unique community of stunted mangroves which receive seasonally driven freshwater inputs and wind-driven estuarine inputsmore » « less
-
null (Ed.)In this work we address the adequacy of two machine learning methods to tackle the problem of wind velocity estimation in the lowermost region of the atmosphere using on-board inertial drone data within an outdoor setting. We fed these data, and accompanying wind tower measurements, into a K-nearest neighbor (KNN) algorithm and a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network to predict future windspeeds, by exploiting the stabilization response of two hovering drones in a wind field. Of the two approaches, we found that LSTM proved to be the most capable supervised learning model during more capricious wind conditions, and made competent windspeed predictions with an average root mean square error of 0.61 m·s−1 averaged across two drones, when trained on at least 20 min of flight data. During calmer conditions, a linear regression model demonstrated acceptable performance, but under more variable wind regimes the LSTM performed considerably better than the linear model, and generally comparable to more sophisticated methods. Our approach departs from other multi-rotor-based windspeed estimation schemes by circumventing the use of complex and specific dynamic models, to instead directly learn the relationship between drone attitude and fluctuating windspeeds. This exhibits utility in a range of otherwise prohibitive environments, like mountainous terrain or off-shore sites.more » « less
-
This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site US-NR4 Niwot Ridge Alpine (T-Van East). Site Description - Snow-scoured alpine tundra; Fellfield vegetation; 3-m tower located 50 m E of US-NR3, 387 m SW of US-xNW, and 28 km west of Boulder, CO, USA. Reliable nearby daily precipitation data (NWT D1) can be found at: https://doi.org/10.6073/pasta/63b912a406254df036e89c84a1b59230.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.3390/land14010124
