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Real-time spatial management in fisheries, a type of dynamic ocean management, uses nearly real-time data collection and dissemination to reduce susceptibility of certain species or age classes to being caught in mixed fisheries. However, as with many fisheries regulations, it is difficult to assess whether such a regulation can produce tangible results on population dynamics. In this study, we take advantage of a rare opportunity in which data regarding real-time closures (RTCs) are available for 1990–2014 alongside annual estimates of fishing mortality for three species (Atlantic cod, haddock, and herring) and catch for four species (all plus saithe) in Icelandic fisheries management. We use time series analyses to assess whether RTCs work as expected and yield a lower susceptibility of small fish to being caught, indicated by lower catch levels and selectivities (as estimated from fishing mortalities) in years with more closures. Results indicate that haddock and herring followed this pattern, but only under conditions of generally high fishing mortality. This study represents the first time evidence has been presented that real-time fishery closures can have a beneficial effect on population dynamics, but also suggests that results differ among species.
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This content will become publicly available on February 7, 2026
Mortality drives production dynamics of Atlantic cod through 1100 years of commercial fishing
Most edible fish species have been fished for centuries or millennia, leaving little record or understanding of their population responses prior to human impact and thus no baseline for population conservation. Here, we reconstruct the population dynamics of Atlantic cod, one of the world’s most harvested fish species, from the pristine state during the Viking era through more than 1100 years of fishing. Analysis of cod otoliths recovered during archaeological excavations of Icelandic fish processing sites revealed that cod in the 10th to 12th centuries were 25% larger and up to 300% older than modern, despite slower density-dependent growth rates attributed to the sixfold increase in abundance. Fishing mortality came to dominate a time-invariant natural mortality rate and other population characteristics after the 14th century, with minimal evidence of environmental effects at the century scale. Despite the absence of catch records and surveys, biological reference points based on pristine fish populations are now possible where otolith collections are available.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2022618
- PAR ID:
- 10660060
- Publisher / Repository:
- Scientific Advances
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Science Advances
- Volume:
- 11
- Issue:
- 6
- ISSN:
- 2375-2548
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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