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IntroductionA defining aspect of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports (AR) is a formal uncertainty language framework that emphasizes higher certainty issues across the reports, especially in the executive summaries and short summaries for policymakers. As a result, potentially significant risks involving understudied components of the climate system are shielded from view. MethodsHere we seek to address this in the latest, sixth assessment report (AR6) for one such component—the deep ocean—by summarizing major uncertainties (based on discussions of low confidence issues or gaps) regarding its role in our changing climate system. The goal is to identify key research priorities to improve IPCC confidence levels in deep ocean systems and facilitate the dissemination of IPCC results regarding potentially high impact deep ocean processes to decision-makers. This will accelerate improvement of global climate projections and aid in informing efforts to mitigate climate change impacts. An analysis of 3,000 pages across the six selected AR6 reports revealed 219 major science gaps related to the deep ocean. These were categorized by climate stressor and nature of impacts. ResultsHalf of these are biological science gaps, primarily surrounding our understanding of changes in ocean ecosystems, fisheries, and primary productivity. The remaining science gaps are related to uncertainties in the physical (32%) and biogeochemical (15%) ocean states and processes. Model deficiencies are the leading cited cause of low certainty in the physical ocean and ice states, whereas causes of biological uncertainties are most often attributed to limited studies and observations or conflicting results. DiscussionKey areas for coordinated effort within the deep ocean observing and modeling community have emerged, which will improve confidence in the deep ocean state and its ongoing changes for the next assessment report. This list of key “known unknowns” includes meridional overturning circulation, ocean deoxygenation and acidification, primary production, food supply and the ocean carbon cycle, climate change impacts on ocean ecosystems and fisheries, and ocean-based climate interventions. From these findings, we offer recommendations for AR7 to avoid omitting low confidence-high risk changes in the climate system.
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Analysis of nature-related themes and terminology in U.S. climate assessments
"Nature” is a broad term with neither a standard definition nor consistent use, even across federal reports like the National Climate Assessment (NCA). The process of defining complex topics like “nature” is difficult given the broad range in people’s understandings of and relationships with the natural world. To support the development of future nature assessments and NCAs, we analyzed use of nature-related words and themes over time in all five published NCAs and one preliminary draft of NCA5. Overall, despite the prevalence of nature-related topics, we found the term “nature” was not used as much as others like “ecosystems,” though “nature-based solutions” appeared more in the latest NCA (NCA5) compared to earlier NCAs. Additionally, the scope of nature-related chapters in NCAs has evolved from initially focusing on impacts of climate change on ecosystems and ecosystem services towards highlighting solutions that nature can provide and implications for human well-being and environmental justice. We suggest improving the consistency of nature-related terms and topics within future climate and nature assessments to help promote dialogues across disciplines, reports, and assessment chapters, allowing researchers to better tackle multifaceted issues of global change. However, broad standardization of nature-related language may unnecessarily constrict the diverse understandings of nature. Definitions of nature-related terms should be revisited and adapted based on changing views and realities as global changes evolve.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2224545
- PAR ID:
- 10663548
- Publisher / Repository:
- Springer Nature
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Climatic Change
- Volume:
- 178
- Issue:
- 4
- ISSN:
- 0165-0009
- Subject(s) / Keyword(s):
- Climate change Nature-based solutions Ecosystem services National climate assessment
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-025-03899-3
