An official website of the United States government
Abstract An understanding of the combined effects of climate change (CC) and other anthropogenic stressors, such as chemical exposures, is essential for improving ecological risk assessments of vulnerable ecosystems. In the Great Barrier Reef, coral reefs are under increasingly severe duress from increasing ocean temperatures, acidification, and cyclone intensities associated with CC. In addition to these stressors, inshore reef systems, such as the Mackay–Whitsunday coastal zone, are being impacted by other anthropogenic stressors, including chemical, nutrient, and sediment exposures related to more intense rainfall events that increase the catchment runoff of contaminated waters. To illustrate an approach for incorporating CC into ecological risk assessment frameworks, we developed an adverse outcome pathway network to conceptually delineate the effects of climate variables and photosystem II herbicide (diuron) exposures on scleractinian corals. This informed the development of a Bayesian network (BN) to quantitatively compare the effects of historical (1975–2005) and future projected climate on inshore hard coral bleaching, mortality, and cover. This BN demonstrated how risk may be predicted for multiple physical and biological stressors, including temperature, ocean acidification, cyclones, sediments, macroalgae competition, and crown of thorns starfish predation, as well as chemical stressors such as nitrogen and herbicides. Climate scenarios included an ensemble of 16 downscaled models encompassing current and future conditions based on multiple emission scenarios for two 30‐year periods. It was found that both climate‐related and catchment‐related stressors pose a risk to these inshore reef systems, with projected increases in coral bleaching and coral mortality under all future climate scenarios. This modeling exercise can support the identification of risk drivers for the prioritization of management interventions to build future resilient reefs.Integr Environ Assess Manag2024;20:401–418. © 2023 Norwegian Institute for Water Research and The Authors.Integrated Environmental Assessment and Managementpublished by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC). This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.
more »
« less
Integrating climate model projections into environmental risk assessment: A probabilistic modeling approach
Abstract The Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) convened a Pellston workshop in 2022 to examine how information on climate change could be better incorporated into the ecological risk assessment (ERA) process for chemicals as well as other environmental stressors. A major impetus for this workshop is that climate change can affect components of ecological risks in multiple direct and indirect ways, including the use patterns and environmental exposure pathways of chemical stressors such as pesticides, the toxicity of chemicals in receiving environments, and the vulnerability of species of concern related to habitat quality and use. This article explores a modeling approach for integrating climate model projections into the assessment of near‐ and long‐term ecological risks, developed in collaboration with climate scientists. State‐of‐the‐art global climate modeling and downscaling techniques may enable climate projections at scales appropriate for the study area. It is, however, also important to realize the limitations of individual global climate models and make use of climate model ensembles represented by statistical properties. Here, we present a probabilistic modeling approach aiming to combine projected climatic variables as well as the associated uncertainties from climate model ensembles in conjunction with ERA pathways. We draw upon three examples of ERA that utilized Bayesian networks for this purpose and that also represent methodological advancements for better prediction of future risks to ecosystems. We envision that the modeling approach developed from this international collaboration will contribute to better assessment and management of risks from chemical stressors in a changing climate.Integr Environ Assess Manag2024;20:367–383. © 2023 The Authors.Integrated Environmental Assessment and Managementpublished by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).
more »
« less
- PAR ID:
- 10509702
- Publisher / Repository:
- Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management
- Volume:
- 20
- Issue:
- 2
- ISSN:
- 1551-3777
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 367 to 383
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
null (Ed.)Increasing numbers of chemicals are on the market and present in consumer products. Emerging evidence on the relationship between environmental contributions and prevalent diseases suggests associations between early-life exposure to manufactured chemicals and a wide range of children’s health outcomes. Using current assessment methodologies, public health and chemical management decisionmakers face challenges in evaluating and anticipating the potential impacts of exposure to chemicals on children’s health in the broader context of their physical (built and natural) and social environments. Here, we consider a systems approach to address the complexity of children’s environmental health and the role of exposure to chemicals during early life, in the context of nonchemical stressors, on health outcomes. By advancing the tools for integrating this more complex information, the scope of considerations that support chemical management decisions can be extended to include holistic impacts on children’s health.more » « less
-
NA (Ed.)Amazon forests are undergoing rapid transformations driven by deforestation, climate change, fire, and other anthropogenic pressures, leading to the hypothesis that they may be nearing a catastrophic tipping point—beyond which ecosystems could shift to a permanently altered state. This review revisits the concept of an Amazon tipping point and assesses the risk of forest collapse from an ecological perspective. We synthesize evidence showing that environmental stressors can drive critical ecosystem transitions, either gradually through incremental loss of resilience or abruptly via synergistic feedbacks. The interplay between climate and land-use change amplifies risks to biodiversity, ecosystem services, and livelihoods. Yet, there is limited evidence for a single, system-wide tipping point. Instead, the Amazon's resilience—although not unlimited—offers meaningful pathways for recovery. The most immediate and effective strategies to support this resilience include slowing forest loss, mitigating climate change, reducing fire activity, curbing defaunation, and restoring degraded ecosystems. Without decisive action to address direct threats, the Amazon system may be pushed beyond safe ecological-climatological operating limits—even in the absence of sharply defined thresholds—due to the scale and persistence of anthropogenic pressures. Preserving the Amazon's ecological integrity and its vital role in regulating the global climate requires urgent, sustained conservation efforts in collaboration with local and Indigenous communities.more » « less
-
High-throughput phenotypic profiling assays, popular for their ability to characterize alternations in single-cell morphological feature data, have been useful in recent years for predicting cellular targets and mechanisms of action (MoAs) for different chemicals and novel drugs. However, this approach has not been extensively used in environmental toxicology due to the lack of studies and established methods for performing this kind of assay in environmentally relevant species. Here, we developed a multiplexed algal cytological imaging (MACI) assay, based on the subcellular structures of the unicellular microalgae, Raphidocelis subcapitata, a toxicology and ecological model species. Several different herbicides and antibiotics with unique MoAs were exposed to R. subcapitata cells, and MACI was used to characterize cellular impacts by measuring subtle changes in their morphological features, including metrics of area, shape, quantity, fluorescence intensity, and granularity of individual subcellular components. This study demonstrates that MACI offers a quick and effective framework for characterizing complex phenotypic responses to environmental chemicals that can be used for determining their MoAs and identifying their cellular targets in plant-type organisms.more » « less
-
The generation of synthetic tropical cyclone tracks for Risk assessment is a critical application of preparedness for the impacts of climate change and disaster relief, particularly in North America. Insurance companies use these synthetic tracks to estimate the potential risks and financial impacts of future tropical cyclones. For governments and policymakers, understanding the potential impacts of tropical cyclones helps in developing effective emergency response strategies, updating building codes, and prioritizing investments in resilience and mitigation projects. In this study, many hypothetical but plausible TC scenarios are created based on historical TC data HURDAT2 (HURricane DATa 2nd generation). A hybrid methodology, combining the ARIMA and K-MEANS methods with Autoencoder, is employed to capture better historical TC behaviors and project future trajectories and intensities. It demonstrates an efficient and reliable in the field of climate modeling and risk assessment. By effectively capturing past hurricane patterns and providing detailed future projections, this approach not only validates the reliability of this method but also offers crucial insights for a range of applications, from disaster preparedness and emergency management to insurance risk analysis and policy formulation.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1002/ieam.4879
