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Abstract AimTo better understand the potential impact of climate change on butterfly assemblages across a tropical island, we model the potential for taxonomic and functional homogenization and determine climate‐ and trait‐mediated shifts in projected species distributions. LocationPuerto Rico. MethodsWe used thousands of museum records of diurnal Lepidoptera to model current (1970–2000) and forecast future (2061–2080) species distributions and combined these to test for taxonomic and functional homogenization. We then quantified climatic‐mediated effects on current and forecasted taxonomic and functional composition and, specifically, whether temperature was a primary driver, as predicted by the temperature–size rule and the thermal melanism hypotheses. Finally, we measured wing traits important in thermoregulation (size and colour) and determined trait‐mediated changes in forecasted species distributions over time. ResultsBased on ensemble model outputs, taxonomic and functional richness and turnover were predicted to vary across the island's complex topography. Our models projected an increase in taxonomic and functional richness over time, and a decrease in taxonomic and functional turnover – a signature of biotic homogenization. Under future climate scenarios, models projected a decrease in wing length and an increase in wing brightness at higher elevations. One variable, temperature seasonality, was the strongest predicted driver of both the current spatial distribution and the projected per cent change over time for not only wing traits but also taxonomic and functional richness and turnover. Main conclusionsThe species distribution models generated here identify several priority regions and species for future research and conservation efforts. Our work also highlights the role of seasonality and climatic variability on diverse tropical Lepidoptera assemblages, suggesting that climatic variability may be an important, albeit overlooked, driver of climate change responses. 

Introduction Interest for bee microbiota has recently been rising, alleviating the gap in knowledge in regard to drivers of solitary bee gut microbiota. However, no study has addressed the microbial acquisition routes of tropical solitary bees. For both social and solitary bees, the gut microbiota has several essential roles such as food processing and immune responses. While social bees such as honeybees maintain a constant gut microbiota by direct transmission from individuals of the same hive, solitary bees do not have direct contact between generations. They thus acquire their gut microbiota from the environment and/or the provision of their brood cell. To establish the role of life history in structuring the gut microbiota of solitary bees, we characterized the gut microbiota of Centris decolorata from a beach population in Mayagüez, Puerto Rico. Females provide the initial brood cell provision for the larvae, while males patrol the nest without any contact with it. We hypothesized that this behavior influences their gut microbiota, and that the origin of larval microbiota is from brood cell provisions. Methods We collected samples from adult females and males of C. decolorata ( n  = 10 each, n  = 20), larvae ( n  = 4), and brood cell provisions ( n  = 10). For comparison purposes, we also sampled co-occurring female foragers of social Apis mellifera ( n  = 6). The samples were dissected, their DNA extracted, and gut microbiota sequenced using 16S rRNA genes. Pollen loads of A. mellifera and C. decolorata were analyzed and interactions between bee species and their plant resources were visualized using a pollination network. Results While we found the gut of A. mellifera contained the same phylotypes previously reported in the literature, we noted that the variability in the gut microbiota of solitary C. decolorata was significantly higher than that of social A. mellifera . Furthermore, the microbiota of adult C. decolorata mostly consisted of acetic acid bacteria whereas that of A. mellifera mostly had lactic acid bacteria. Among C. decolorata , we found significant differences in alpha and beta diversity between adults and their brood cell provisions (Shannon and Chao1 p  < 0.05), due to the higher abundance of families such as Rhizobiaceae and Chitinophagaceae in the brood cells, and of Acetobacteraceae in adults. In addition, the pollination network analysis indicated that A. mellifera had a stronger interaction with Byrsonima sp. and a weaker interaction with Combretaceae while interactions between C. decolorata and its plant resources were constant with the null model. Conclusion Our data are consistent with the hypothesis that behavioral differences in brood provisioning between solitary and social bees is a factor leading to relatively high variation in the microbiota of the solitary bee.