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Abstract Based on the rate of change of its orbital period, PSR J2043+1711 has a substantial peculiar acceleration of 3.5 ± 0.8 mm s^–1yr^–1, which deviates from the acceleration predicted by equilibrium Milky Way (MW) models at a 4σlevel. The magnitude of the peculiar acceleration is too large to be explained by disequilibrium effects of the MW interacting with orbiting dwarf galaxies (∼1 mm s^–1yr^–1), and too small to be caused by period variations due to the pulsar being a redback. We identify and examine two plausible causes for the anomalous acceleration: a stellar flyby, and a long-period orbital companion. We identify a main-sequence star in Gaia DR3 and Pan-STARRS DR2 with the correct mass, distance, and on-sky position to potentially explain the observed peculiar acceleration. However, the star and the pulsar system have substantially different proper motions, indicating that they are not gravitationally bound. However, it is possible that this is an unrelated star that just happens to be located near J2043+1711 along our line of sight (chance probability of 1.6%). Therefore, we also constrain possible orbital parameters for a circumbinary companion in a hierarchical triple system with J2043+1711; the changes in the spindown rate of the pulsar are consistent with an outer object that has an orbital period of 60 kyr, a companion mass of 0.3M_⊙(indicative of a white dwarf or low-mass star), and a semimajor axis of 1900 au. Continued timing and/or future faint optical observations of J2043+1711 may eventually allow us to differentiate between these scenarios. 

Abstract PINTis a pure-Python framework for high-precision pulsar timing developed on top of widely used and well-tested Python libraries, supporting both interactive and programmatic data analysis workflows. We present a new frequentist framework withinPINTto characterize the single-pulsar noise processes present in pulsar timing data sets. This framework enables parameter estimation for both uncorrelated and correlated noise processes, as well as model comparison between different timing and noise models in a computationally inexpensive way. We demonstrate the efficacy of the new framework by applying it to simulated data sets as well as a real data set of PSR B1855+09. We also describe the new features implemented inPINTsince it was first described in the literature. 

Abstract Pulsar timing array observations have found evidence for an isotropic gravitational-wave background with the Hellings–Downs angular correlations between pulsar pairs. This interpretation hinges on the measured shape of the angular correlations, which is predominantly quadrupolar under general relativity. Here we explore a more flexible parameterization: we expand the angular correlations into a sum of Legendre polynomials and use a Bayesian analysis to constrain their coefficients with the 15 yr pulsar timing data set collected by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav). When including Legendre polynomials with multipolesℓ≥ 2, we only find a significant signal in the quadrupole with an amplitude consistent with general relativity and nonzero at the ∼95% confidence level and a Bayes factor of 200. When we include multipolesℓ≤ 1, the Bayes factor evidence for quadrupole correlations decreases by more than an order of magnitude due to evidence for a monopolar signal at approximately 4 nHz, which has also been noted in previous analyses of the NANOGrav 15 yr data. Further work needs to be done in order to better characterize the properties of this monopolar signal and its effect on the evidence for quadrupolar angular correlations. 

Abstract Evidence has emerged for a stochastic signal correlated among 67 pulsars within the 15 yr pulsar-timing data set compiled by the NANOGrav collaboration. Similar signals have been found in data from the European, Indian, Parkes, and Chinese pulsar timing arrays. This signal has been interpreted as indicative of the presence of a nanohertz stochastic gravitational-wave background (GWB). To explore the internal consistency of this result, we investigate how the recovered signal strength changes as we remove the pulsars one by one from the data set. We calculate the signal strength using the (noise-marginalized) optimal statistic, a frequentist metric designed to measure the correlated excess power in the residuals of the arrival times of the radio pulses. We identify several features emerging from this analysis that were initially unexpected. The significance of these features, however, can only be assessed by comparing the real data to synthetic data sets. After conducting identical analyses on simulated data sets, we do not find anything inconsistent with the presence of a stochastic GWB in the NANOGrav 15 yr data. The methodologies developed here can offer additional tools for application to future, more sensitive data sets. While this analysis provides an internal consistency check of the NANOGrav results, it does not eliminate the necessity for additional investigations that could identify potential systematics or uncover unmodeled physical phenomena in the data. 

Abstract Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) are designed to detect low-frequency gravitational waves (GWs). GWs induce achromatic signals in PTA data, meaning that the timing delays do not depend on radio frequency. However, pulse arrival times are also affected by radio-frequency-dependent “chromatic” noise from sources such as dispersion measure (DM) and scattering delay variations. Furthermore, the characterization of GW signals may be influenced by the choice of chromatic noise model for each pulsar. To better understand this effect, we assess if and how different chromatic noise models affect the achromatic noise properties in each pulsar. The models we compare include existing DM models used by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational waves (NANOGrav) and noise models used for the European PTA Data Release 2 (EPTA DR2). We perform this comparison using a subsample of six pulsars from the NANOGrav 15 yr data set, selecting the same six pulsars as from the EPTA DR2 six-pulsar data set. We find that the choice of chromatic noise model noticeably affects the achromatic noise properties of several pulsars. This is most dramatic for PSR J1713+0747, where the amplitude of its achromatic red noise lowers from ${\log }_{10}{A}_{\mathrm{RN}}=-{14.1}_{-0.1}^{+0.1}$to $-{14.7}_{-0.5}^{+0.3}$, and the spectral index broadens from ${\gamma }_{\mathrm{RN}}={2.6}_{-0.4}^{+0.5}$to ${\gamma }_{\mathrm{RN}}={3.5}_{-0.9}^{+1.2}$. We also compare each pulsar's noise properties with those inferred from the EPTA DR2, using the same models. From the discrepancies, we identify potential areas where the noise models could be improved. These results highlight the potential for custom chromatic noise models to improve PTA sensitivity to GWs. 

Abstract The cosmic merger history of supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) is expected to produce a low-frequency gravitational wave background (GWB). Here we investigate how signs of the discrete nature of this GWB can manifest in pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) through excursions from, and breaks in, the expected $f_{\mathrm{GW}}^{-2/3}$power law of the GWB strain spectrum. To do this, we create a semianalytic SMBHB population model, fit to North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav’s) 15 yr GWB amplitude, and with 1000 realizations, we study the populations’ characteristic strain and residual spectra. Comparing our models to the NANOGrav 15 yr spectrum, we find two interesting excursions from the power law. The first, at 2 nHz, is below our GWB realizations with ap-value significancep= 0.05–0.06 (≈1.8σ–1.9σ). The second, at 16 nHz, is above our GWB realizations withp= 0.04–0.15 (≈1.4σ–2.1σ). We explore the properties of a loud SMBHB that could cause such an excursion. Our simulations also show that the expected number of SMBHBs decreases by 3 orders of magnitude, from ∼10⁶to ∼10³, between 2 and 20 nHz. This causes a break in the strain spectrum as the stochasticity of the background breaks down at ${26}_{-19}^{+28}\mathrm{nHz}$, consistent with predictions pre-dating GWB measurements. The diminished GWB signal from SMBHBs at frequencies above the 26 nHz break opens a window for PTAs to detect continuous GWs from individual SMBHBs or GWs from the early Universe. 

Abstract The NANOGrav 15 yr data provide compelling evidence for a stochastic gravitational-wave (GW) background at nanohertz frequencies. The simplest model-independent approach to characterizing the frequency spectrum of this signal consists of a simple power-law fit involving two parameters: an amplitudeAand a spectral indexγ. In this Letter, we consider the next logical step beyond this minimal spectral model, allowing for arunning(i.e., logarithmic frequency dependence) of the spectral index, ${\gamma }_{\mathrm{run}}\left(f\right)=\gamma +\beta \ln \left(f/f_{\mathrm{ref}}\right)$. We fit this running-power-law (RPL) model to the NANOGrav 15 yr data and perform a Bayesian model comparison with the minimal constant-power-law (CPL) model, which results in a 95% credible interval for the parameterβconsistent with no running, $\beta \in \left(-0.80,2.96\right)$, and an inconclusive Bayes factor, $B\left(\mathrm{RPL}\mathrm{versus}\mathrm{CPL}\right)=0.69\pm 0.01$. We thus conclude that, at present, the minimal CPL model still suffices to adequately describe the NANOGrav signal; however, future data sets may well lead to a measurement of nonzeroβ. Finally, we interpret the RPL model as a description of primordial GWs generated during cosmic inflation, which allows us to combine our results with upper limits from Big Bang nucleosynthesis, the cosmic microwave background, and LIGO–Virgo–KAGRA. 

Abstract Recently we found compelling evidence for a gravitational-wave background with Hellings and Downs (HD) correlations in our 15 yr data set. These correlations describe gravitational waves as predicted by general relativity, which has two transverse polarization modes. However, more general metric theories of gravity can have additional polarization modes, which produce different interpulsar correlations. In this work, we search the NANOGrav 15 yr data set for evidence of a gravitational-wave background with quadrupolar HD and scalar-transverse (ST) correlations. We find that HD correlations are the best fit to the data and no significant evidence in favor of ST correlations. While Bayes factors show strong evidence for a correlated signal, the data does not strongly prefer either correlation signature, with Bayes factors ∼2 when comparing HD to ST correlations, and ∼1 for HD plus ST correlations to HD correlations alone. However, when modeled alongside HD correlations, the amplitude and spectral index posteriors for ST correlations are uninformative, with the HD process accounting for the vast majority of the total signal. Using the optimal statistic, a frequentist technique that focuses on the pulsar-pair cross-correlations, we find median signal-to-noise ratios of 5.0 for HD and 4.6 for ST correlations when fit for separately, and median signal-to-noise ratios of 3.5 for HD and 3.0 for ST correlations when fit for simultaneously. While the signal-to-noise ratios for each of the correlations are comparable, the estimated amplitude and spectral index for HD are a significantly better fit to the total signal, in agreement with our Bayesian analysis.