Note: When clicking on a Digital Object Identifier (DOI) number, you will be taken to an external site maintained by the publisher.
Some full text articles may not yet be available without a charge during the embargo (administrative interval).
What is a DOI Number?
Some links on this page may take you to non-federal websites. Their policies may differ from this site.
Accurate forecasting of electricity demand is vital to the resilient management of energy systems. Recent efforts in harnessing smart-meter data to improve forecasting accuracy have primarily centered around cluster-based approaches (CBAs), where smart-meter data are grouped into a small number of clusters and separate prediction models are developed for each cluster. The cluster-based predictions are then aggregated to compute the total demand. CBAs have provided promising results compared to conventional approaches that are generally not conducive to integrating smart-meter data. However, CBAs are computationally costly and suffer from the curse of dimensionality, especially under scenarios involving smart-meter data from millions of customers. In this work, we propose an efficient reduced model approach (RMA) that leverages a novel hierarchical dimension reduction algorithm to enable the integration of fine-resolution high-dimensional smart-meter data for millions of customers in load prediction. We demonstrate the applicability of our proposed approach by using data from a utility company, based in Illinois, United States, with more than 3.7 million customers and present model performance in-terms of forecast accuracy. The proposed hierarchical dimension reduction approach enables utilizing the high-resolution data from smart- meters in a scalable manner that is not exploitable otherwise. The results shows significant improvements inmore »
Hurricane-induced power outage risk under climate change is primarily driven by the uncertainty in projections of future hurricane frequency
Nine in ten major outages in the US have been caused by hurricanes. Long-term outage risk is a function of climate change-triggered shifts in hurricane frequency and intensity; yet projections of both remain highly uncertain. However, outage risk models do not account for the epistemic uncertainties in physics-based hurricane projections under climate change, largely due to the extreme computational complexity. Instead they use simple probabilistic assumptions to model such uncertainties. Here, we propose a transparent and efficient framework to, for the first time, bridge the physics-based hurricane projections and intricate outage risk models. We find that uncertainty in projections of the frequency of weaker storms explains over 95% of the uncertainty in outage projections; thus, reducing this uncertainty will greatly improve outage risk management. We also show that the expected annual fraction of affected customers exhibits large variances, warranting the adoption of robust resilience investment strategies and climate-informed regulatory frameworks.