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Supercooled water is common in the clouds near coastal Antarctica and occasionally occurs at temperatures at or below −30°C. Yet the ice physics in most regional and global numerical models will glaciate out these clouds. This presents a challenge for the simulation of highly supercooled clouds that were observed at McMurdo, Antarctica during the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE) project during 2015–2017. The polar optimized version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (Polar WRF) with the recently developed two‐moment P3 microphysics scheme was used to simulate observed supercooled liquid water cases during March and November 2016. Nudging of the simulations to observed rawinsonde profiles and Antarctic automatic weather station observations provided increased realism and much greater cloud water amounts. Sensitivity tests that adjust the ice physics for extremely low ice nucleating particle (INP) concentrations decrease cloud ice and increases the cloud liquid water closer to observed amounts. In these tests, a liquid layer near cloud top is simulated, in agreement with observations. Accurate representation of INP concentrations appears to be critical for the simulation of coastal Antarctic clouds.

The West Antarctic climate is under the combined impact of synoptic and regional drivers. Regional factors have contributed to more frequent surface melting with a similar pattern recently, which accelerates ice loss and favors global sea‐level rise. Part I of this research identified and quantified the two leading drivers of Ross Ice Shelf (RIS) melting, viz. foehn effect and direct marine air advection, based on Polar WRF (PWRF) simulations. In this article (Part II), the impact of clouds and the pattern of surface energy balance (SEB) during melting are analyzed, as well as the relationship among these three factors. In general, net shortwave radiation dominates the surface melting with a daily mean value above 100 W·m⁻². Foehn clearance and decreasing surface albedo respectively increase the downward shortwave radiation and increase the absorbed shortwave radiation, significantly contributing to surface melting in areas such as western Marie Byrd Land. Also, extensive downward longwave radiation caused by low‐level liquid cloud favors the melting expansion over the middle and coastal RIS. With significant moisture transport occurring over more than 40% of the time during the melting period, the impact from net radiation can be amplified. Moreover, frequent foehn cases can enhance the turbulent mixing on the leeside. With a Froude number (Fr) around 1 or slightly larger, fast downdrafts or reversed wind flows can let the warm foehn air penetrate down to the surface with up to 20 W·m⁻²in sensible heat flux transfer to the ground. However, when the Froude number is close to infinity with breaking waves on the leeside, the contribution of turbulence to the surface warming is reduced. With better understanding of the regional factors for the surface melting, prediction of the future stability of West Antarctic ice shelves can be improved.

West Antarctica (WA), especially the Ross Ice Shelf (RIS), has experienced more frequent surface melting during the austral summer recently. The future is likely to see enhanced surface melting that will jeopardize the stability of ice shelves and cause ice loss. We investigate four major melt cases over the RIS via Polar Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations (4 km resolution) driven by European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis 5th Generation (ERA5) reanalysis data and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observed albedo. Direct warm air advection, recurring foehn effect, and cloud/upper warm air introduced radiative warming are the three major regional causes of surface melting over WA. In this paper, Part I, the first two factors are identified and quantified. The second paper, Part II, discusses the impact of clouds and summarizes all three factors from a surface energy balance perspective. With a high‐pressure ridge located westward towards the Sulzberger Ice Shelf (77° S, 148° W) and a low‐pressure center located between 165° and 180° W, warm marine air from the Ross Sea is advected towards the coastal RIS and leads to surface melting. When the high‐pressure ridge is located farther east towards Marie Byrd Land (120–150° W), the foehn effect can cause a 2–4°C increase in surface temperature on the leeside of the mountains. For three of four melt cases, more than 40% of the melting period experiences foehn warming. Isentropic drawdown is usually the dominant foehn mechanism and contributes up to a 14°C temperature increase, especially when strong low‐level blocking occurs on the upwind side. The thermodynamic mechanism can be important depending on the strength of moisture uptake and condensation on the windward side. Meanwhile, sensible heat flux contributes less to foehn warming, but still plays an important role in the melting. The prediction of future stability of the RIS should include foehn warming as a major driver.