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Creators/Authors contains: "Baldwin, Elizabeth"

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  1. Abstract Climate change is triggering regional-scale alterations in vegetation including land cover change such as forest die-off. At sufficient magnitudes, land cover change from forest die-off in one region can change not only local climate but also vegetation including agriculture elsewhere via changes in larger scale climate patterns, termed an ‘ecoclimate teleconnection’. Ecoclimate teleconnections can therefore have impacts on vegetative growth in distant regions, but the degrees to which the impact decays with distance or directionally diffuses relative to the initial perturbation are general properties that have not been evaluated. We used the Community Earth system model to study this, examining the implications of tree die-off in 14 major US forested regions. For each case we evaluated the ecological impact across North America as a function of distance and direction from the location of regional tree die-off. We found that the effects on gross primary productivity (GPP) generally decayed linearly with distance, with notable exceptions. Distance from the region of tree die-off alone explained up to ∼30% of the variance in many regions. We also found that the GPP impact was not uniform across directions and that including an additional term to account for direction to regional land cover change from tree die-off was statistically significant for nearly all regions and explained up to ∼40% of the variance in many regions, comparable in magnitude to the influence of El Nino on GPP in the Western US. Our results provide novel insights into the generality of distance decay and directional diffusion of ecoclimate teleconnections, and suggest that it may be hard to identify expected impacts of tree die-off without case-specific simulations. Such patterns of distance decay, directional diffusion, and their exceptions are relevant for cross-regional policy that links forests and other agriculture (e.g. US Department of Agriculture). 
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  2. Abstract Buffelgrass [Pennisetum ciliare(L.) Link] is an invasive C4perennial bunchgrass that is a threat to biodiversity in aridlands in the Americas and Australia. Topography influencesP. ciliareoccurrence at large spatial scales, but further investigation into the relationship between local-scale topography andP. ciliaregrowth and reproduction would be beneficial. Further, density-dependent effects onP. ciliaregrowth and reproduction have been demonstrated in greenhouse experiments, but the extent to which density dependence influencesP. ciliarein natural populations warrants further investigation. Here we present a study on the relationships between local-scale topography (aspect and slope gradient) and vegetation characteristics (shrub cover,P. ciliarecover, andP. ciliaredensity) and their interactions on individualP. ciliareplant size and reproduction. We measured slope gradient, aspect, shrub cover,P. ciliarecover,P. ciliaredensity, and the total number of live culms and reproductive culms of 10P. ciliareplants in 33 4 by 4 m plots located in 11 transects at the Desert Laboratory at Tumamoc Hill, Tucson, AZ, USA. We modeled the relationships at the local scale of (1)P. ciliarecover and density with aspect and slope gradient and (2)P. ciliaresize and reproduction with abiotic (slope gradient and aspect) and biotic (P. ciliarecover and density and native shrub and cacti cover) characteristics. Aspect and slope gradient were poor predictors ofP. ciliarecover and density in already invaded sites at the scale of our plots. However, aspect had a significant relationship withP. ciliareplant size and reproduction.Pennisetum ciliareplants on south-facing aspects were larger and produced more reproductive culms than plants on other aspects. Further, we found no relationship betweenP. ciliaredensity andP. ciliareplant size and reproduction. Shrub cover was positively correlated withP. ciliarereproduction. South-facing aspects are likely most vulnerable to fast spread and infilling by newP. ciliareintroductions. 
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  3. In the southwestern United States, non-native grass invasions have increased wildfire occurrence in deserts and the likelihood of fire spread to and from other biomes with disparate fire regimes. The elevational transition between desertscrub and montane grasslands, woodlands, and forests generally occurs at ∼1,200 masl and has experienced fast suburbanization and an expanding wildland-urban interface (WUI). In summer 2020, the Bighorn Fire in the Santa Catalina Mountains burned 486 km 2 and prompted alerts and evacuations along a 40-km stretch of WUI below 1,200 masl on the outskirts of Tucson, Arizona, a metropolitan area of >1M people. To better understand the changing nature of the WUI here and elsewhere in the region, we took a multidimensional and timely approach to assess fire dynamics along the Desertscrub-Semi-desert Grassland ecotone in the Catalina foothills, which is in various stages of non-native grass invasion. The Bighorn Fire was principally a forest fire driven by a long-history of fire suppression, accumulation of fine fuels following a wet winter and spring, and two decades of hotter droughts, culminating in the hottest and second driest summer in the 125-yr Tucson weather record. Saguaro ( Carnegia gigantea ), a giant columnar cactus, experienced high mortality. Resprouting by several desert shrub species may confer some post-fire resiliency in desertscrub. Buffelgrass and other non-native species played a minor role in carrying the fire due to the patchiness of infestation at the upper edge of the Desertscrub biome. Coupled state-and-transition fire-spread simulation models suggest a marked increase in both burned area and fire frequency if buffelgrass patches continue to expand and coalesce at the Desertscrub/Semi-desert Grassland interface. A survey of area residents six months after the fire showed awareness of buffelgrass was significantly higher among residents that were evacuated or lost recreation access, with higher awareness of fire risk, saguaro loss and declining property values, in that order. Sustained and timely efforts to document and assess fast-evolving fire connectivity due to grass invasions, and social awareness and perceptions, are needed to understand and motivate mitigation of an increasingly fire-prone future in the region. 
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  4. Abstract AimAddressing global environmental challenges requires access to biodiversity data across wide spatial, temporal and taxonomic scales. Availability of such data has increased exponentially recently with the proliferation of biodiversity databases. However, heterogeneous coverage, protocols, and standards have hampered integration among these databases. To stimulate the next stage of data integration, here we present a synthesis of major databases, and investigate (a) how the coverage of databases varies across taxonomy, space, and record type; (b) what degree of integration is present among databases; (c) how integration of databases can increase biodiversity knowledge; and (d) the barriers to database integration. LocationGlobal. Time periodContemporary. Major taxa studiedPlants and vertebrates. MethodsWe reviewed 12 established biodiversity databases that mainly focus on geographic distributions and functional traits at global scale. We synthesized information from these databases to assess the status of their integration and major knowledge gaps and barriers to full integration. We estimated how improved integration can increase the data coverage for terrestrial plants and vertebrates. ResultsEvery database reviewed had a unique focus of data coverage. Exchanges of biodiversity information were common among databases, although not always clearly documented. Functional trait databases were more isolated than those pertaining to species distributions. Variation and potential incompatibility of taxonomic systems used by different databases posed a major barrier to data integration. We found that integration of distribution databases could lead to increased taxonomic coverage that corresponds to 23 years’ advancement in data accumulation, and improvement in taxonomic coverage could be as high as 22.4% for trait databases. Main conclusionsRapid increases in biodiversity knowledge can be achieved through the integration of databases, providing the data necessary to address critical environmental challenges. Full integration across databases will require tackling the major impediments to data integration: taxonomic incompatibility, lags in data exchange, barriers to effective data synchronization, and isolation of individual initiatives. 
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