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Abstract. Rapid warming across the Arctic is the primary driver of widespread permafrost thaw, with far-reaching consequences for local ecosystem resilience, the regional carbon budget, and the global climate system. Because permafrost characteristics and vulnerability are tightly linked to land cover, particularly vegetation type and surface properties, understanding these dynamics requires accurate and detailed land cover information. Spatial variation in vegetation cover influences energy balance, snow insulation, and soil moisture, factors that directly affect permafrost stability. Consequently, high-resolution land cover products are essential for assessing the ecological impacts of permafrost thaw and for improving the representation of permafrost-related processes in predictive models. However, many global land cover datasets fail to capture the spatial heterogeneity and fine-scale ecological features that influence permafrost dynamics, while more detailed regional products often lack coverage across broader, continental extents. This gap presents a challenge for large-scale assessments of permafrost vulnerability under accelerating climate change. To create a spatially cohesive land cover map that accurately represents the distribution of ecosystems across the Arctic-Boreal region, we integrated existing global and regional land cover datasets using a workflow including machine learning techniques. This approach seamlessly combines diverse data sources, enhancing representation and accuracy. The resulting map represents high-latitude land cover types at a 1-km spatial resolution, better capturing the spatial heterogeneity of the landscape compared to coarser resolution land surface products, with a total of 35 land cover classes, including 20 forest types (e.g., Larch, Birch, Mixed forests), 6 shrubland classes, and wetlands subdivided into bog, fen, and marsh. To achieve this, we used a global land cover map, the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative Land Cover data (ESA CCI-LC), as the base map and integrated regional maps across the circumpolar region with finer-resolution land cover information to capture the diversity of land cover types. This approach ensured consistent classification across geopolitical boundaries while incorporating representative vegetation communities at a region-specific level. We show that regional land cover products can be successfully fused to yield a higher-resolution thematic content at the circumpolar scale in comparison to existing global products. The hybrid land cover product can be freely access via https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15231293 (Briones et al 2025).
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Distance decay and directional diffusion of ecoclimate teleconnections driven by regional-scale tree die-off
Abstract Climate change is triggering regional-scale alterations in vegetation including land cover change such as forest die-off. At sufficient magnitudes, land cover change from forest die-off in one region can change not only local climate but also vegetation including agriculture elsewhere via changes in larger scale climate patterns, termed an ‘ecoclimate teleconnection’. Ecoclimate teleconnections can therefore have impacts on vegetative growth in distant regions, but the degrees to which the impact decays with distance or directionally diffuses relative to the initial perturbation are general properties that have not been evaluated. We used the Community Earth system model to study this, examining the implications of tree die-off in 14 major US forested regions. For each case we evaluated the ecological impact across North America as a function of distance and direction from the location of regional tree die-off. We found that the effects on gross primary productivity (GPP) generally decayed linearly with distance, with notable exceptions. Distance from the region of tree die-off alone explained up to ∼30% of the variance in many regions. We also found that the GPP impact was not uniform across directions and that including an additional term to account for direction to regional land cover change from tree die-off was statistically significant for nearly all regions and explained up to ∼40% of the variance in many regions, comparable in magnitude to the influence of El Nino on GPP in the Western US. Our results provide novel insights into the generality of distance decay and directional diffusion of ecoclimate teleconnections, and suggest that it may be hard to identify expected impacts of tree die-off without case-specific simulations. Such patterns of distance decay, directional diffusion, and their exceptions are relevant for cross-regional policy that links forests and other agriculture (e.g. US Department of Agriculture).
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- Award ID(s):
- 1824796
- PAR ID:
- 10561221
- Publisher / Repository:
- IOP Science
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Environmental Research Letters
- Volume:
- 18
- Issue:
- 11
- ISSN:
- 1748-9326
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 114013
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acff0d
