Several recent widespread temperature extremes across the United States (U.S.) have been associated with power outages, disrupting access to electricity at times that are critical for the health and well-being of communities. Building resilience to such extremes in our energy infrastructure needs a comprehensive understanding of their spatial and temporal characteristics. In this study, we systematically quantify the frequency, extent, duration, and intensity of widespread temperature extremes and their associated energy demand in the six North American Electric Reliability Corporation regions using ERA5 reanalysis data. We show that every region has experienced hot or cold extremes that affected nearly their entire extent and such events were associated with substantially higher energy demand, resulting in simultaneous stress across the entire electric gird. The western U.S. experienced significant increases in the frequency (123%), extent (32%), duration (55%) and intensity (29%) of hot extremes and Texas experienced significant increases in the frequency (132%) of hot extremes. The frequency of cold extremes has decreased across most regions without substantial changes in other characteristics. Using power outage data, we show that recent widespread extremes in nearly every region have coincided with power outages, and such outages account for between 12%–52% of all weather-related outages in the past decade depending on the region. Importantly, we find that solar potential is significantly higher during widespread hot extremes in all six regions and during widespread cold extremes in five of the six regions. Further, wind potential is significantly higher during widespread hot or cold extremes in at least three regions. Our findings indicate that increased solar and wind capacity could be leveraged to meet the higher demand for energy during such widespread extremes, improving the resilience and reliability of our energy systems in addition to limiting carbon emissions.
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Bekris, Yianna ; Loikith, Paul C. ; Neelin, J. David ( , Geophysical Research Letters)
Abstract Humid‐heat extremes threaten human health and are increasing in frequency with global warming, so elucidating factors affecting their rate of change is critical. We investigate the role of wet‐bulb temperature (
T W ) frequency distribution tail shape on the rate of increase in extremeT W threshold exceedances under 2°C global warming. Results indicate that non‐GaussianT W distribution tails are common worldwide across extensive, spatially coherent regions. More rapid increases in the number of days exceeding the historical 95th percentile are projected in locations with shorter‐than‐Gaussian warm side tails. Asymmetry in the specific humidity distribution, one component ofT W , is more closely correlated withT W tail shape than temperature, suggesting that humidity climatology strongly influences the rate of future changes inT W extremes. Short non‐GaussianT W warm tails have notable implications for dangerous humid‐heat in regions where current‐climateT W extremes approach human safety limits. -
Kalashnikov, Dmitri_A ; Abatzoglou, John_T ; Loikith, Paul_C ; Nauslar, Nicholas_J ; Bekris, Yianna ; Singh, Deepti ( , Geophysical Research Letters)
Abstract Cloud‐to‐ground lightning with minimal rainfall (“dry” lightning) is a major wildfire ignition source in the western United States (WUS). Although dry lightning is commonly defined as occurring with <2.5 mm of daily‐accumulated precipitation, a rigorous quantification of precipitation amounts concurrent with lightning‐ignited wildfires (LIWs) is lacking. We combine wildfire, lightning and precipitation data sets to quantify these ignition precipitation amounts across ecoprovinces of the WUS. The median precipitation for all LIWs is 2.8 mm but varies with vegetation and fire characteristics. “Holdover” fires not detected until 2–5 days following ignition occur with significantly higher precipitation (5.1 mm) compared to fires detected promptly after ignition (2.5 mm), and with cooler and wetter environmental conditions. Further, there is substantial variation in precipitation associated with promptly‐detected (1.7–4.6 mm) and holdover (3.0–7.7 mm) fires across ecoprovinces. Consequently, the widely‐used 2.5 mm threshold does not fully capture lightning ignition risk and incorporating ecoprovince‐specific precipitation amounts would better inform WUS wildfire prediction and management.