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Prediction markets allow traders to bet on potential future outcomes. These markets exist for weather, political, sports, and economic forecasting. Within this work we consider a decentralized framework for prediction markets using automated market makers (AMMs). Specifically, we construct a liquidity-based AMM structure for prediction markets that, under reasonable axioms on the underlying utility function, satisfy meaningful financial properties on the cost of betting and the resulting pricing oracle. Importantly, we study how liquidity can be pooled or withdrawn from the AMM and the resulting implications to the market behavior. In considering this decentralized framework, we additionally propose financially meaningful fees that can be collected for trading to compensate the liquidity providers for their vital market function.
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In this work we present an equilibrium formulation for price impacts. This is motivated by the Bühlmann equilibrium in which assets are sold into a system of market participants, for example, a fire sale in systemic risk, and can be viewed as a generalization of the Esscher premium. Existence and uniqueness of clearing prices for the liquidation of a portfolio are studied. We also investigate other desired portfolio properties including monotonicity and concavity. Price per portfolio unit sold is also calculated. In special cases, we study price impacts generated by market participants who follow the exponential utility and power utility.more » « less
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In a crisis, when faced with insolvency, banks can sell stock in a dilutive offering in the stock market and borrow money in order to raise funds. We propose a simple model to find the maximum amount of new funds the banks can raise in these ways. To do this, we incorporate market confidence of the bank together with market confidence of all the other banks in the system into the overnight borrowing rate. Additionally, for a given cash shortfall, we find the optimal mix of borrowing and stock selling strategy. We show the existence and uniqueness of Nash equilibrium point for all these problems. Finally, using this model we investigate if banks have become safer since the crisis. We calibrate this model with market data and conduct an empirical study to assess safety of the financial system before, during after the last financial crisis.more » « less
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This work seeks to quantify the benefits of using energy storage toward the reduction of the energy generation cost of a power system. A two-fold optimization framework is provided where the first optimization problem seeks to find the optimal storage schedule that minimizes operational costs. Since the operational cost depends on the storage capacity, a second optimization problem is then formulated with the aim of finding the optimal storage capacity to be deployed. Although, in general, these problems are difficult to solve, we provide a lower bound on the cost savings for a parametrized family of demand profiles. The optimization framework is numerically illustrated using real-world demand data from ISO New England. Numerical results show that energy storage can reduce energy generation costs by at least 2.5 percent.more » « less
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