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Abstract. The contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) to sea level rise (SLR) is accelerating and there is an urgent need to improve predictions of when and from what parts of the ice sheet Greenland will contribute its first meter. Estimating the volume of Greenland ice that was lost during past warm periods offers a way to constrain the ice sheet’s response to future warming. Sub-ice sediment and bedrock, retrieved from deep ice core campaigns or targeted drilling efforts, yield critical and direct information about past ice-free conditions. However, it is challenging to scale the few available sub-ice point measurements to the geometry of the entire ice sheet. Here, we provide a framework for assessing sea-level potential, which we define as the amount the GIS has contributed to sea level when a particular location in Greenland is ice-free, from an ensemble of ice-sheet model simulations representing a wide range of plausible deglaciation scenarios. An assessment of dominant sources of uncertainty in our paleo ice sheet modelling, including climate forcing, ice-sheet initialization, and solid-Earth properties, reveals spatial patterns in the sensitivity of the ice sheet to these processes and related feedbacks. We find that the sea-level potential of central Greenland is most sensitive to lithospheric feedbacks and ice-sheet initialization, whereas the ice-sheet margins are most sensitive to climate forcing parameters. Our framework allows us to quantify the local and regional uncertainty in sea-level potential, which we use to evaluate the GIS bedrock according to the usefulness of information sub-ice sediments and bedrock provide about past ice-sheet geometry. Through our ensemble approach, we can assign a plausible range of GIS contributions to global sea level for deglaciated conditions at any site. Our results identify primarily areas in southwest Greenland, and secondarily north Greenland, as best-suited for subglacial access drilling that seeks to constrain the response of the ice sheet to past and future warming. 

Abstract In Southeast Greenland, summer melt and high winter snowfall rates give rise to firn aquifers: vast stores of meltwater buried beneath the ice-sheet surface. Previous detailed studies of a single Greenland firn aquifer site suggest that the water drains into crevasses, but this is not known at a regional scale. We develop and use a tool in Ghub, an online gateway of shared datasets, tools and supercomputing resources for glaciology, to identify crevasses from elevation data collected by NASA's Airborne Topographic Mapper across 29000 km 2 of Southeast Greenland. We find crevasses within 3 km of the previously mapped downglacier boundary of the firn aquifer at 20 of 25 flightline crossings. Our data suggest that crevasses widen until they reach the downglacier boundary of the firn aquifer, implying that crevasses collect firn-aquifer water, but we did not find this trend with statistical significance. The median crevasse width, 27 meters, implies an aspect ratio consistent with the crevasses reaching the bed. Our results support the idea that most water in Southeast Greenland firn aquifers drains through crevasses. Less common fates are discharge at the ice-sheet surface (3 of 25 sites) and refreezing at the aquifer bottom (1 of 25 sites). 

Abstract. Most extant ice caps mantling low-relief Arctic Canada landscapes remained cold based throughout the late Holocene, preserving in situ bryophytes killed as ice expanded across vegetated landscapes. After reaching peak late Holocene dimensions ∼1900 CE, ice caps receded as Arctic summers warmed, exposing entombed vegetation. The calibrated radiocarbon ages of entombed moss collected near ice cap margins (kill dates) define when ice advanced across the site, killing the moss, and remained over the site until the year of their collection. In an earlier study, we reported 94 last millennium radiocarbon dates on in situ dead moss collected at ice cap margins across Baffin Island, Arctic Canada. Tight clustering of those ages indicated an abrupt onset of the Little Ice Age at ∼1240 CE and further expansion at ∼1480 CE coincident with episodes of major explosive volcanism. Here we test the confidence in kill dates as reliable predictors of expanding ice caps by resampling two previously densely sampled ice complexes ∼15 years later after ∼250 m of ice recession. The probability density functions (PDFs) of the more recent series of ages match PDFs of the earlier series but with a larger fraction of early Common Era ages. Post 2005 CE ice recession has exposed relict ice caps that grew during earlier Common Era advances and were preserved beneath later ice cap growth. We compare the 106 kill dates from the two ice complexes with 80 kill dates from 62 other ice caps within 250 km of the two densely sampled ice complexes. The PDFs of kill dates from the 62 other ice caps cluster in the same time windows as those from the two ice complexes alone, with the PDF of all 186 kill dates documenting episodes of widespread ice expansion restricted almost exclusively to 250–450 CE, 850–1000 CE, and a dense early Little Ice Age cluster with peaks at ∼1240 and ∼1480 CE. Ice continued to expand after 1480 CE, reaching maximum dimensions at ∼1880 CE that are still visible as zones of sparse vegetation cover in remotely sensed imagery. Intervals of widespread ice cap expansion coincide with persistent decreases in mean summer surface air temperature for the region in a Community Earth System Model (CESM) fully coupled Common Era simulation, suggesting the primary forcings of the observed snowline lowering were both modest declines in summer insolation and cooling resulting from explosive volcanism, most likely intensified by positive feedbacks from increased snow cover and sea ice and reduced northward heat transport by the oceans. The clusters of ice cap expansion defined by moss kill dates are mirrored in an annually resolved Common Era record of ice cap dimensions in Iceland, suggesting this is a circum-North-Atlantic–Arctic climate signal for the Common Era. During the coldest century of the Common Era, 1780–1880 CE, ice caps mantled >11 000 km2 of north-central Baffin Island, whereas <100 km2 is glaciated at present. The peak Little Ice Age state approached conditions expected during the inception phase of an ice age and was only reversed after 1880 CE by anthropogenic alterations of the planetary energy balance. 

Abstract. Numerical simulations of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) over geologictimescales can greatly improve our knowledge of the critical factors drivingGrIS demise during climatically warm periods, which has clear relevance forbetter predicting GrIS behavior over the upcoming centuries. To assess thefidelity of these modeling efforts, however, observational constraints ofpast ice sheet change are needed. Across southwestern Greenland, geologicrecords detail Holocene ice retreat across both terrestrial-based and marine-terminating environments, providing an ideal opportunity to rigorouslybenchmark model simulations against geologic reconstructions of ice sheetchange. Here, we present regional ice sheet modeling results using theIce-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM) of Holocene ice sheet historyacross an extensive fjord region in southwestern Greenland covering thelandscape around the Kangiata Nunaata Sermia (KNS) glacier and extendingoutward along the 200 km Nuup Kangerula (Godthåbsfjord). Oursimulations, forced by reconstructions of Holocene climate and recentlyimplemented calving laws, assess the sensitivity of ice retreat across theKNS region to atmospheric and oceanic forcing. Our simulations reveal thatthe geologically reconstructed ice retreat across the terrestrial landscapein the study area was likely driven by fluctuations in surface mass balancein response to Early Holocene warming – and was likely not influencedsignificantly by the response of adjacent outlet glaciers to calving andocean-induced melting. The impact of ice calving within fjords, however,plays a significant role by enhancing ice discharge at the terminus, leadingto interior thinning up to the ice divide that is consistent withreconstructed magnitudes of Early Holocene ice thinning. Our results,benchmarked against geologic constraints of past ice-margin change, suggestthat while calving did not strongly influence Holocene ice-margin migrationacross terrestrial portions of the KNS forefield, it strongly impactedregional mass loss. While these results imply that the implementation andresolution of ice calving in paleo-ice-flow models is important towardsmaking more robust estimations of past ice mass change, they also illustratethe importance these processes have on contemporary and future long-term icemass change across similar fjord-dominated regions of the GrIS. 

Abstract We leverage a data set of >720 shell-bearing marine deposits throughout southeastern Alaska (USA) to develop updated relative sea-level curves that span the past ∼14,000 yr. This data set includes site location, elevation, description when available, and 436 14C ages, 45 of which are published here for the first time. Our sea-level curves suggest a peripheral forebulge developed west of the retreating Cordilleran Ice Sheet (CIS) margin between ca. 17,000 and 10,800 calibrated yr B.P. By 14,870 ± 630 to 12,820 ± 340 cal. yr B.P., CIS margins had retreated from all of southeastern Alaska's fjords, channels, and passages. At this time, isolated or stranded ice caps existed on the islands, with alpine or tidewater glaciers in many valleys. Paleoshorelines up to 25 m above sea level mark the maximum elevation of transgression in the southern portion of the study region, which was achieved by 11,000 ± 390 to 10,500 ± 420 cal. yr B.P. The presence of Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) and the abundance of charcoal in sediments that date between 11,000 ± 390 and 7630 ± 90 cal. yr B.P. suggest that both ocean and air temperatures in southeastern Alaska were relatively warm in the early Holocene. The sea-level and paleoenvironmental reconstruction presented here can inform future investigations into the glacial, volcanic, and archaeological history of southeastern Alaska. 

Abstract. Direct observations of the size of the Greenland Ice Sheet during Quaternary interglaciations are sparse yet valuable for testing numerical models of ice-sheet history and sea level contribution. Recent measurements of cosmogenicnuclides in bedrock from beneath the Greenland Ice Sheet collected duringpast deep-drilling campaigns reveal that the ice sheet was significantlysmaller, and perhaps largely absent, sometime during the past 1.1 millionyears. These discoveries from decades-old basal samples motivate new,targeted sampling for cosmogenic-nuclide analysis beneath the ice sheet.Current drills available for retrieving bed material from the US IceDrilling Program require < 700 m ice thickness and a frozen bed,while quartz-bearing bedrock lithologies are required for measuring a largesuite of cosmogenic nuclides. We find that these and other requirementsyield only ∼ 3.4 % of the Greenland Ice Sheet bed as asuitable drilling target using presently available technology. Additionalfactors related to scientific questions of interest are the following: which areas of thepresent ice sheet are the most sensitive to warming, where would a retreating icesheet expose bare ground rather than leave a remnant ice cap, andwhich areas are most likely to remain frozen bedded throughout glacialcycles and thus best preserve cosmogenic nuclides? Here we identifylocations beneath the Greenland Ice Sheet that are best suited for potentialfuture drilling and analysis. These include sites bordering Inglefield Landin northwestern Greenland, near Victoria Fjord and Mylius-Erichsen Land innorthern Greenland, and inland from the alpine topography along the icemargin in eastern and northeastern Greenland. Results from cosmogenic-nuclide analysis in new sub-ice bedrock cores from these areas would help to constrain dimensions of the Greenland Ice Sheet in the past. 

Abstract Understanding marine-terminating ice sheet response to past climate transitions provides valuable long-term context for observations of modern ice sheet change. Here, we reconstruct the last deglaciation of marine-terminating Cordilleran Ice Sheet (CIS) margins in Southeast Alaska and explore potential forcings of western CIS retreat. We combine 27 new cosmogenic 10 Be exposure ages, 13 recently published 10 Be ages, and 25 new 14 C ages from raised marine sediments to constrain CIS recession. Retreat from the outer coast was underway by 17 ka, and the inner fjords and sounds were ice-free by 15 ka. After 15 ka, the western margin of the CIS became primarily land-terminating and alpine glaciers disappeared from the outer coast. Isolated alpine glaciers may have persisted in high inland peaks until the early Holocene. Our results suggest that the most rapid phase of CIS retreat along the Pacific coast occurred between ~17 and 15 ka. This retreat was likely driven by processes operating at the ice-ocean interface, including sea level rise and ocean warming. CIS recession after ~15 ka occurred during a time of climatic amelioration in this region, when both ocean and air temperatures increased. These data highlight the sensitivity of marine-terminating CIS regions to deglacial climate change. 

The North Atlantic was a key locus for circulation-driven abrupt climate change in the past and could play a similar role in the future. Abrupt cold reversals, including the 8.2 ka event, punctuated the otherwise warm early Holocene in the North Atlantic region and serve as useful paleo examples of rapid climate change. In this work, we assess the cryospheric response to early Holocene climate history on Baffin Island, Arctic Canada, using cosmogenic radionuclide dating of moraines. We present 39 new 10Be ages from four sets of multi-crested early Holocene moraines deposited by cirque glaciers and ice cap outlet glaciers, as well as erratic boulders along adjacent fiords to constrain the timing of regional deglaciation. The age of one moraine is additionally constrained by in situ 14C measurements, which confirm 10Be inheritance in some samples. All four moraines were deposited between ~9.2 and 8.0 ka, and their average ages coincide with abrupt coolings at 9.3 and 8.2 ka that are recorded in Greenland ice cores. Freshwater delivery to the North Atlantic that reduced the flux of warm Atlantic water into Baffin Bay may explain brief intervals of glacier advance, although moraine formation cannot be definitively tied to centennial-scale cold reversals. We thus explore other possible contributing factors, including ice dynamics related to retreat of Laurentide Ice Sheet outlet glaciers. Using a numerical glacier model, we show that the debuttressing effect of trunk valley deglaciation may have contributed to these morainebuilding events. These new age constraints and process insights highlight the complex behavior of the cryosphere during regional deglaciation and suggest that multiple abrupt cold reversalsdas well as deglacial ice dynamicsdlikely played a role in early Holocene moraine formation on Baffin Island.