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  1. ; (, Geophysical Research Letters)
    Abstract This study quantifies the contribution to Arctic winter surface warming from changes in the tropospheric energy transport (Ftrop) and the efficiency with whichFtropheats the surface in the RCP8.5 warming scenario of the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble. A metric for this efficiency,Etrop, measures the fraction of anomalousFtropthat is balanced by an anomalous net surface flux (NSF). Drivers ofEtropare identified in synoptic‐scale events during whichFtropis the dominant driver of NSF.Etropis sensitive to the vertical structure ofFtropand pre‐existing Arctic lower‐tropospheric stability (LTS). In RCP8.5, winter‐meanFtropdecreases from 95.1 to 85.4 W m−2, whileEtropincreases by 5.7%, likely driven by decreased Arctic LTS, indicating an increased coupling betweenFtropand the surface energy budget. The net impact of decreasingFtropand increasing efficiency is a positive 0.7 W m−2contribution to winter‐season surface heating. 
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