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Predicting how different interventions will causally affect a specific individual is important in a variety of domains such as personalized medicine, public policy, and online marketing. There are a large number of methods to predict the effect of an existing intervention based on historical data from individuals who received it. However, in many settings it is important to predict the effects of novel interventions (e.g., a newly invented drug), which these methods do not address. Here, we consider zero-shot causal learning: predicting the personalized effects of a novel intervention. We propose CaML, a causal meta-learning framework which formulates the personalized prediction of each intervention’s effect as a task. CaML trains a single meta-model across thousands of tasks, each constructed by sampling an intervention, its recipients, and its nonrecipients. By leveraging both intervention information (e.g., a drug’s attributes) and individual features (e.g., a patient’s history), CaML is able to predict the personalized effects of novel interventions that do not exist at the time of training. Experimental results on real world datasets in large-scale medical claims and cell-line perturbations demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Most strikingly, CaML’s zero-shot predictions outperform even strong baselines trained directly on data from the test interventions. 

We consider the nonparametric estimation of an S-shaped regression function. The least squares estimator provides a very natural, tuning-free approach, but results in a non-convex optimization problem, since the inflection point is unknown. We show that the estimator may nevertheless be regarded as a projection onto a finite union of convex cones, which allows us to propose a mixed primal-dual bases algorithm for its efficient, sequential computation. After developing a projection framework that demonstrates the consistency and robustness to misspecification of the estimator, our main theoretical results provide sharp oracle inequalities that yield worst-case and adaptive risk bounds for the estimation of the regression function, as well as a rate of convergence for the estimation of the inflection point. These results reveal not only that the estimator achieves the minimax optimal rate of convergence for both the estimation of the regression function and its inflection point (up to a logarithmic factor in the latter case), but also that it is able to achieve an almost-parametric rate when the true regression function is piecewise affine with not too many affine pieces. Simulations and a real data application to air pollution modelling also confirm the desirable finite-sample properties of the estimator, and our algorithm is implemented in the R package Sshaped.

 

Domain generalization aims at performing well on unseen test environments with data from a limited number of training environments. Despite a proliferation of proposed algorithms for this task, assessing their performance both theoretically and empirically is still very challenging. Distributional matching algorithms such as (Conditional) Domain Adversarial Networks [12, 28] are popular and enjoy empirical success, but they lack formal guarantees. Other approaches such as Invariant Risk Minimization (IRM) require a prohibitively large number of training environments—linear in the dimension of the spurious feature space ds—even on simple data models like the one proposed by Rosenfeld et al. [37]. Under a variant of this model, we show that ERM and IRM can fail to fnd the optimal invariant predictor with o(ds) environments. We then present an iterative feature matching algorithm that is guaranteed with high probability to find the optimal invariant predictor after seeing only O(log ds) environments. Our results provide the first theoretical justification for distribution-matching algorithms widely used in practice under a concrete nontrivial data model.