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Abstract. Warming in high alpine regions is leading to an increase in glacier surface melt production, firn temperature, and firn liquid water content, altering regional hydrology and climate records contained in the ice. Here we use field observations and firn modeling to show that although the snowpack at Eclipse Icefield at 3000 m a.s.l. in the St. Elias Range, Yukon, Canada, remains largely dry, meltwater percolation is likely to increase with an increase in intense melt events associated with continued atmospheric warming. In particular, the development of year-round deep temperate firn at Eclipse Icefield is promoted by an increase in the number of individual melt events and in average melt event magnitude combined with warmer wintertime temperatures, rather than an earlier or prolonged melt season. Borehole temperatures indicate that from 2016 to 2023 there was a 1.67 °C warming of the firn at 14 m depth (to -3.37±0.01 °C in 2023). Results from the Community Firn Model show that warming of the firn below 10 m depth may continue over the next decade, with a 2 % chance of becoming temperate year-round at 15 m depth by 2033, even without continued atmospheric warming. Model results also show that the chance of Eclipse Icefield developing year-round temperate firn at 15 m depth by 2033 increases from 2 % with 0.1 °C atmospheric warming over the period 2023–2033 to 12 % with 0.2 °C warming, 51 % with 0.5 °C warming, and 98 % with 1 °C warming. As the majority of the St. Elias Range's glacierized terrain lies below Eclipse Icefield, the development of temperate firn at this elevation would likely indicate widespread meltwater percolation in this region and a wholesale change in its hydrological system, reducing its capacity to buffer runoff and severely limiting potential ice core sites. It is therefore urgent that a deep ice core be retrieved while the record is still intact. 

Abstract. Glacier velocity measurements are essential to understand ice flow mechanics, monitor natural hazards, and make accurate projections of future sea-level rise. Despite these important applications, the method most commonly used to derive glacier velocity maps, feature tracking, relies on empirical parameter choices that rarely account for glacier physics or uncertainty. Here we test two statistics- and physics-based metrics to evaluate velocity maps derived from optical satellite images of Kaskawulsh Glacier, Yukon, Canada, using a range of existing feature-tracking workflows. Based on inter-comparisons with ground truth data, velocity maps with metrics falling within our recommended ranges contain fewer erroneous measurements and more spatially correlated noise than velocity maps with metrics that deviate from those ranges. Thus, these metric ranges are suitable for refining feature-tracking workflows and evaluating the resulting velocity products. We have released an open-source software package for computing and visualizing these metrics, the GLAcier Feature Tracking testkit (GLAFT). 

Abstract. Remote sensing data are a crucial tool for monitoring climatological changes and glacier response in areas inaccessible for in situ measurements. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface temperature (LST) product provides temperature data for remote glaciated areas where air temperature measurements from weather stations are sparse or absent, such as the St. Elias Mountains (Yukon, Canada). However, MODIS LSTs in the St. Elias Mountains have been found in prior studies to show an offset from available weather station measurements, the source of which is unknown. Here, we show that the MODIS offset likely results from the occurrence of near-surface temperature inversions rather than from the MODIS sensor’s large footprint size or from poorly constrained snow emissivity values used in LST calculations. We find that an offset in remote sensing temperatures is present not only in MODIS LST products but also in Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emissions Radiometer (ASTER) and Landsat temperature products, both of which have a much smaller footprint (90–120 m) than MODIS (1 km). In all three datasets, the offset was most pronounced in the winter (mean offset >8 ∘C) and least pronounced in the spring and summer (mean offset <2 ∘C). We also find this enhanced seasonal offset in MODIS brightness temperatures, before the incorporation of snow surface emissivity into the LST calculation. Finally, we find the MODIS LST offset to be consistent in magnitude and seasonal distribution with modeled temperature inversions and to be most pronounced under conditions that facilitate near-surface inversions, namely low incoming solar radiation and wind speeds, at study sites Icefield Divide (60.68∘N, 139.78∘ W; 2,603 m a.s.l) and Eclipse Icefield (60.84∘ N, 139.84∘ W; 3017 m a.s.l.). Although these results do not preclude errors in the MODIS sensor or LST algorithm, they demonstrate that efforts to convert MODIS LSTs to an air temperature measurement should focus on understanding near-surface physical processes. In the absence of a conversion from surface to air temperature based on physical principles, we apply a statistical conversion, enabling the use of mean annual MODIS LSTs to qualitatively and quantitatively examine temperatures in the St. Elias Mountains and their relationship to melt and mass balance. 

Abstract The once-contiguous Ellesmere Ice Shelf, first reported in writing by European explorers in 1876, and now almost completely disintegrated, has rolling, wave-like surface topography, the origin of which we investigate using a viscous buckling instability analysis. We show that rolls can develop during a winter season (~ 100 d) if sea-ice pressure (depth-integrated horizontal stress applied to the seaward front of the Ellesmere Ice Shelf) is sufficiently large (1 MPa m) and ice thickness sufficiently low (1–10 m). Roll wavelength initially depends only on sea-ice pressure, but evolves over time depending on amplitude growth rate. This implies that a thinner ice shelf, with its faster amplitude growth rate, will have a shorter wavelength compared to a thicker ice shelf when sea-ice pressure is equal. A drawback of the viscous buckling mechanism is that roll amplitude decays once sea-ice pressure is removed. However, non-Newtonian ice rheology, where effective viscosity, and thus roll change rate, depends on total applied stress may constrain roll decay rate to be much slower than growth rate and allow roll persistence from year to year. Whether the viscous-buckling mechanism we explore here ultimately can be confirmed as the origin of the Ellesmere Ice Shelf rolls remains for future research.