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Infection duration affects individual host fitness and between-host transmission. Whether an infection is cleared or becomes chronic depends on the complex interaction between host immune responses and parasite growth. Empirical and theoretical studies have suggested that there are critical thresholds of parasite dose that can determine clearance versus chronicity, driven by the ability of the parasite to manipulate host immunity. However, the mammalian immune response is characterized by strong positive and negative feedback loops that could generate duration thresholds even in the absence of direct immunomodulation. Here, we derive and analyse a simple model for the interaction between T-cell subpopulations and parasite growth. We show that whether an infection is cleared or not is very sensitive to the initial immune state, parasite dose and strength of immunological feedbacks. In particular, chronic infections are possible even when parasites provoke a strong and effective immune response and lack any ability to immunomodulate. Our findings indicate that the initial immune state, which often goes unmeasured in empirical studies, is a critical determinant of infection duration. This work also has implications for epidemiological models, as it implies that infection duration will be highly variable among individuals, and dependent on each individual’s infection history. 

Hosts can avoid parasites (and pathogens) by reducing social contact, but such isolation may carry costs, e.g. increased vulnerability to predators. Thus, many predator–host–parasite systems confront hosts with a trade-off between predation and parasitism. Parasites, meanwhile, evolve higher virulence in response to increased host sociality and consequently, increased multiple infections. How does predation shift coevolution of host behaviour and parasite virulence? What if predators are selective, i.e. predators disproportionately capture the sickest hosts? We answer these questions with an eco-coevolutionary model parametrized for a Trinidadian guppy–Gyrodactylusspp. system. Here, increased predation drives host coevolution of higher grouping, which selects for higher virulence. Additionally, higher predator selectivity drives the contact rate higher and virulence lower. Finally, we show how predation and selectivity can have very different impacts on host density and prevalence depending on whether hosts or parasites evolve, or both. For example, higher predator selectivity led to lower prevalence with no evolution or only parasite evolution but higher prevalence with host evolution or coevolution. These findings inform our understanding of diverse systems in which host behavioural responses to predation may lead to increased prevalence and virulence of parasites. 

Parasites exploit hosts to replicate and transmit, but overexploitation kills both host and parasite. Predators may shift this cost–benefit balance by consuming infected hosts or changing host behaviour, but the strength of these effects remains unclear. Here we use field and lab data on Trinidadian guppies and their Gyrodactylus spp. parasites to show how differential predation pressure influences parasite virulence and transmission. We use an experimentally demonstrated virulence–transmission trade-off to parametrize a mathematical model in which host shoaling (as a means of anti-predator defence), increases contact rates and selects for higher virulence. Then we validate model predictions by collecting parasites from wild, Trinidadian populations; parasites from high-predation populations were more virulent in common gardens than those from low-predation populations. Broadly, our results indicate that reduced social contact selects against parasite virulence.