Search for: All records

Rapid advancement in inverse modeling methods have brought into light their susceptibility to imperfect data. This has made it imperative to obtain more explainable and trustworthy estimates from these models. In hydrology, basin characteristics can be noisy or missing, impacting streamflow prediction. We propose a probabilistic inverse model framework that can reconstruct robust hydrology basin characteristics from dynamic input weather driver and streamflow response data. We address two aspects of building more explainable inverse models, uncertainty estimation (uncertainty due to imperfect data and imperfect model) and robustness. This can help improve the trust of water managers, handling of noisy data and reduce costs. We also propose an uncertainty based loss regularization that offers removal of 17% of temporal artifacts in reconstructions, 36% reduction in uncertainty and 4% higher coverage rate for basin characteristics. The forward model performance (streamflow estimation) is also improved by 6% using these uncertainty learning based reconstructions. 

Abstract The main science aim of the BlackGEM array is to detect optical counterparts to gravitational wave mergers. Additionally, the array will perform a set of synoptic surveys to detect Local Universe transients and short timescale variability in stars and binaries, as well as a six-filter all-sky survey down to ∼22nd mag. The BlackGEM Phase-I array consists of three optical wide-field unit telescopes. Each unit uses anf/5.5 modified Dall-Kirkham (Harmer-Wynne) design with a triplet corrector lens, and a 65 cm primary mirror, coupled with a 110Mpix CCD detector, that provides an instantaneous field-of-view of 2.7 square degrees, sampled at 0.″564 pixel⁻¹. The total field-of-view for the array is 8.2 square degrees. Each telescope is equipped with a six-slot filter wheel containing an optimised Sloan set (BG-u, BG-g, BG-r, BG-i, BG-z) and a wider-band 440–720 nm (BG-q) filter. Each unit telescope is independent from the others. Cloud-based data processing is done in real time, and includes a transient-detection routine as well as a full-source optimal-photometry module. BlackGEM has been installed at the ESO La Silla observatory as of 2019 October. After a prolonged COVID-19 hiatus, science operations started on 2023 April 1 and will run for five years. Aside from its core scientific program, BlackGEM will give rise to a multitude of additional science cases in multi-colour time-domain astronomy, to the benefit of a variety of topics in astrophysics, such as infant supernovae, luminous red novae, asteroseismology of post-main-sequence objects, (ultracompact) binary stars, and the relation between gravitational wave counterparts and other classes of transients. 

Abstract Projections of future conditions within the critical zone—earthcasts—can be used to understand the potential effects of changes in climate on processes affecting landscapes. We are developing an approach to earthcast how weathering will change in the future using scenarios of climate change. As a first step here, we use the earthcasting approach to model aspect‐related effects on soil water chemistry and weathering on hillsides in a well‐studied east‐west trending watershed (Shale Hills, Pennsylvania, USA). We completed model simulations of solute chemistry in soil water with and without the effect of aspect for comparison to catchment observations. With aspect included, aqueous weathering fluxes were higher on the sunny side of the catchment. But the effect of aspect on temperature (0.8 °C warmer soil on sunny side) and recharge (100 mm/year larger on shaded side) alone did not explain the magnitude of the observed higher weathering fluxes on the sunny side. Modeled aspect‐related differences in weathering fluxes only approach field observations when we incorporated the measured differences in clay content observed in augered soils on the two hillslopes. We also had to include a biolifting module to accurately describe cation concentrations in soil water versus depth. Biolifting lowered some mineral dissolution rates while accelerating kaolinite precipitation. These short‐duration simulations also highlighted that the inherited differences in particle size on the two sides of the catchment might in themselves be explained by weathering under different microclimates caused by aspect—over longer durations than simulated with our models.