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Abstract. The number density of ozone, [O3], maximizes around 26 km in the tropics, protecting life from harmful ultraviolet (UV) light without poisoning it at the surface. Textbooks explain this interior maximum with two paradigms: (1) the source-controlled paradigm explains [O3] as maximizing where its source maximizes between abundant photons aloft and abundant [O2] below, and (2) the source / sink competition paradigm, inspired by the Chapman cycle, explains ozone as scaling with [O2] and the photolytic source / sink ratio. However, each paradigm's prediction for the altitude of peak [O3] is off by 10 km, reflecting their well-known omission of ozone sinks from catalytic cycles and transport. We present a minimal, steady-state theory for the tropical stratospheric [O3] maximum, accurate to within 1 km and formulated in terms of the dominant ozone sinks. These sinks are represented simply by augmenting the Chapman cycle with linear damping of O and O3, leading to the Chapman+2 model. The Chapman+2 model correctly simulates peak tropical [O3] at 26 km, yet this peak is not explained by either paradigm. Instead, the peak is newly explained by the transition from an O-damped regime aloft to an O3-damped regime below. An explicit analytical expression is derived for ozone under gray radiation. This theory accurately predicts an interior maximum of ozone and correctly predicts that an increase in top-of-atmosphere UV light will lead to a downward shift in the peak [O3] due to a downward shift in the regime transition, a result not even qualitatively predicted by the existing paradigms. 

The ozone layer is often noted to exhibit self-healing, whereby depletion of ozone aloft induces ozone increases below, explained as resulting from enhanced ozone production due to the associated increase in ultraviolet (UV) radiation below. Similarly, ozone enhancement aloft can reduce ozone below (reverse self-healing). This paper considers self-healing and reverse self-healing to manifest a general mechanism we call photochemical adjustment, whereby ozone perturbations lead to a downward cascade of anomalies in UV and ozone. Conventional explanations for self-healing imply that photochemical adjustment is stabilizing, damping perturbations towards the surface. However, photochemical adjustment can be destabilizing if the enhanced UV disproportionately increases the ozone sink, as can occur if the enhanced UV photolyzes ozone to produce atomic oxygen, which speeds up catalytic destruction of ozone. We analyze photochemical adjustment in two linear ozone models (Cariolle v2.9 and LINOZ), finding that (1) photochemical adjustment is destabilizing above 40 km in the tropical stratosphere and (2) self-healing often represents only a small fraction of the total photochemical stabilization. The destabilizing regime above 40 km is reproduced in a much simpler model: the Chapman cycle augmented with destruction of O and O3 by generalized catalytic cycles and transport (the Chapman+2 model). The Chapman+2 model reveals that photochemical destabilization occurs where the ozone sink is more sensitive than the source to perturbations in overhead column ozone, which is found to occur when the window of overlapping absorption by O2 and O3 is optically unsaturated, i.e., when overhead slant column ozone is below approximately 10^18 molec. cm−2. 

The climate simulation frontier of a global storm-resolving model (GSRM; or k-scale model because of its kilometer-scale horizontal resolution) is deployed for climate change simulations. The climate sensitivity, effective radiative forcing, and relative humidity changes are assessed in multiyear atmospheric GSRM simulations with perturbed sea-surface temperatures and/or carbon dioxide concentrations. Our comparisons to conventional climate model results can build confidence in the existing climate models or highlight important areas for additional research. This GSRM’s climate sensitivity is within the range of conventional climate models, although on the lower end as the result of neutral, rather than amplifying, shortwave feedbacks. Its radiative forcing from carbon dioxide is higher than conventional climate models, and this arises from a bias in climatological clouds and an explicitly simulated high-cloud adjustment. Last, the pattern and magnitude of relative humidity changes, simulated with greater fidelity via explicitly resolving convection, are notably similar to conventional climate models. 

Key Points A novel process‐oriented phase space reveals coherent patterns of terrestrial hydroclimate change Patterns emphasize the impact of soil moisture on temperature extremes and the redistribution of rainfall toward more intense events Patterns of P  −  E changes reveal how land differs from the wet‐get‐wetter/dry‐get‐drier paradigm 

Abstract Changes in tropical deep convection with global warming are a leading source of uncertainty for future climate projections. A comparison of the responses of active sensor measurements of cloud ice to interannual variability and next-generation global storm-resolving model (also known ask-scale models) simulations to global warming shows similar changes for events with the highest column-integrated ice. The changes reveal that the ice loading decreases outside the most active convection but increases at a rate of several percent per Kelvin surface warming in the most active convection. Disentangling thermodynamic and vertical velocity changes shows that the ice signal is strongly modulated by structural changes of the vertical wind field towards an intensification of strong convective updrafts with warming, suggesting that changes in ice loading are strongly influenced by changes in convective velocities, as well as a path toward extracting information about convective velocities from observations. 

In the tropics, the tropopause is exceptionally cold and air entering the stratosphere is dehydrated down to a few parts per million leading to the extreme dryness of Earth’s stratosphere. Deep convection typically detrains a few kilometers below the tropopause, but the few storms that may reach up to the tropopause could have an outsize effect on water vapor, other chemically important trace species, and clouds. However, little progress has been made to quantify the role of these storms due to challenging conditions for observations, and computational limitations. Here we provide the first global observational estimate of the convective ice flux at near tropical tropopause levels by using spaceborne lidar measurements and pioneering a method to convert from lidar measurement to ice flux information. Our estimate indicates that the upward ice flux in deep convection dominates moisture transport almost all the way up to the cold point tropopause.