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Abstract Very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) achieves the highest angular resolution in astronomy. VLBI measures corrupted Fourier components, known as visibilities. Reconstructing on-sky images from these visibilities is a challenging inverse problem, particularly for sparse arrays such as the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) and the Very Long Baseline Array, where incomplete sampling and severe calibration errors introduce significant uncertainty in the image. To help guide convergence and control the uncertainty in image reconstructions, regularization on the space of images is utilized, such as enforcing smoothness or similarity to a fiducial image. Coupled with this regularization is the introduction of a new set of parameters that modulate its strength. We present a hierarchical Bayesian imaging approach (hierarchical interferometric Bayesian Imaging, HIBI) that enables the quantification of uncertainty for all parameters. Incorporating instrumental effects within HIBI is straightforward, allowing for simultaneous imaging and calibration of data. To showcase HIBI’s effectiveness and flexibility, we build a simple imaging model based on Markov random fields and demonstrate how different physical components can be included, e.g., black hole shadow size, and their uncertainties can be inferred. For example, while the original EHT publications were unable to constrain the ring width of M87*, HIBI measures a width of 9.3 ± 1.3μas. We apply HIBI to image and calibrate EHT synthetic data, real EHT observations of M87*, and multifrequency observations of OJ 287. Across these tests, HIBI accurately recovers a wide variety of image structures and quantifies their uncertainties. HIBI is publicly available in theComradeVLBI software repository. 

General relativity predicts that images of optically thin accretion flows around black holes should generically have a “photon ring”, composed of a series of increasingly sharp subrings that correspond to increasingly strongly lensed emission near the black hole. Because the effects of lensing are determined by the spacetime curvature, the photon ring provides a pathway to precise measurements of the black hole properties and tests of the Kerr metric. We explore the prospects for detecting and measuring the photon ring using very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) with the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) and the next-generation EHT (ngEHT). We present a series of tests using idealized self-fits to simple geometrical models and show that the EHT observations in 2017 and 2022 lack the angular resolution and sensitivity to detect the photon ring, while the improved coverage and angular resolution of ngEHT at 230 GHz and 345 GHz is sufficient for these models. We then analyze detection prospects using more realistic images from general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations by applying “hybrid imaging”, which simultaneously models two components: a flexible raster image (to capture the direct emission) and a ring component. Using the Bayesian VLBI modeling package Comrade.jl, we show that the results of hybrid imaging must be interpreted with extreme caution for both photon ring detection and measurement—hybrid imaging readily produces false positives for a photon ring, and its ring measurements do not directly correspond to the properties of the photon ring. 

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) has led to the first images of a supermassive black hole, revealing the central compact objects in the elliptical galaxy M87 and the Milky Way. Proposed upgrades to this array through the next-generation EHT (ngEHT) program would sharply improve the angular resolution, dynamic range, and temporal coverage of the existing EHT observations. These improvements will uniquely enable a wealth of transformative new discoveries related to black hole science, extending from event-horizon-scale studies of strong gravity to studies of explosive transients to the cosmological growth and influence of supermassive black holes. Here, we present the key science goals for the ngEHT and their associated instrument requirements, both of which have been formulated through a multi-year international effort involving hundreds of scientists worldwide.