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Insects often exhibit irruptive population dynamics determined by environmental conditions. We examine if populations of theCulex tarsalismosquito, a West Nile virus (WNV) vector, fluctuate synchronously over broad spatial extents and multiple timescales and whether climate drives synchrony inCx. tarsalis, especially at annual timescales, due to the synchronous influence of temperature, precipitation, and/or humidity. We leveraged mosquito collections across 9 National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) sites distributed in the interior West and Great Plains region USA over a 45-month period, and associated gridMET climate data. We utilized wavelet phasor mean fields and wavelet linear models to quantify spatial synchrony for mosquitoes and climate and to calculate the importance of climate in explainingCx. tarsalissynchrony. We also tested whether the strength of spatial synchrony may vary directionally across years. We found significant annual synchrony inCx. tarsalis, and short-term synchrony during a single period in 2018. Mean minimum temperature was a significant predictor of annualCx. tarsalisspatial synchrony, and we found a marginally significant decrease in annualCx. tarsalissynchrony. SignificantCx. tarsalissynchrony during 2018 coincided with an anomalous increase in precipitation. This work provides a valuable step toward understanding broadscale synchrony in a WNV vector.

 

One of the slowest steps in digitizing natural history collections is converting labels associated with specimens into a digital data record usable for collections management and research. Here, we address how herbarium specimen labels can be converted into digital data records via extraction into standardized Darwin Core fields.

We first showcase the development of a rule‐based approach and compare outcomes with a large language model–based approach, in particular ChatGPT4. We next quantified omission and commission error rates across target fields for a set of labels transcribed using optical character recognition (OCR) for both approaches. For example, we find that ChatGPT4 often creates field names that are not Darwin Core compliant while rule‐based approaches often have high commission error rates.

Our results suggest that these approaches each have different strengths and limitations. We therefore developed an ensemble approach that leverages the strengths of each individual method and documented that ensembling strongly reduced overall information extraction errors.

This work shows that an ensemble approach has particular value for creating high‐quality digital data records, even for complicated label content. While human validation is still needed to ensure the best possible quality, automated approaches can speed digitization of herbarium specimen labels and are likely to be broadly usable for all natural history collection types.

 

Recent reports of insect declines have raised concerns about the potential for concomitant losses to ecosystem processes. However, understanding the causes and consequences of insect declines is challenging, especially given the data deficiencies for most species. Needed are approaches that can help quantify the magnitude and potential causes of declines at levels above species. Here we present an analytical framework for assessing broad‐scale plant–insect phenologies and their relationship to community‐level insect abundance patterns. We intentionally apply a species‐neutral approach to analyse trends in phenology and abundance at the macroecological scale. Because both phenology and abundance are critical to ecosystem processes, we estimate aggregate metrics using the overwintering (diapause) stage, a key species trait regulating phenology and environmental sensitivities. This approach can be used across broad spatiotemporal scales and multiple taxa, including less well‐studied groups. Using community (‘citizen’) science butterfly observations from multiple platforms across the Eastern USA, we show that the relationships between environmental drivers, phenology and abundance depend on the diapause stage. In particular, egg‐diapausing butterflies show marked changes in adult‐onset phenology in relation to plant phenology and are rapidly declining in abundance over a 20‐year span across the study region. Our results also demonstrate the negative consequences of warmer winters for the abundance of egg‐diapausing butterflies, irrespective of plant phenology. In sum, the diapause stage strongly shapes both phenological sensitivities and developmental requirements across seasons, providing a basis for predicting the impacts of environmental change across trophic levels. Utilizing a framework that ties thermal performance across life stages in relation to climate and lower‐trophic‐level phenology provides a critical step towards predicting changes in ecosystem processes provided by butterflies and other herbivorous insects into the future. 

Despite experimental and observational studies demonstrating that biodiversity enhances primary productivity, the best metric for predicting productivity at broad geographic extents—functional trait diversity, phylogenetic diversity, or species richness—remains unknown. Using >1.8 million tree measurements from across eastern US forests, we quantified relationships among functional trait diversity, phylogenetic diversity, species richness, and productivity. Surprisingly, functional trait and phylogenetic diversity explained little variation in productivity that could not be explained by tree species richness. This result was consistent across the entire eastern United States, within ecoprovinces, and within data subsets that controlled for biomass or stand age. Metrics of functional trait and phylogenetic diversity that were independent of species richness were negatively correlated with productivity. This last result suggests that processes that determine species sorting and packing are likely important for the relationships between productivity and biodiversity. This result also demonstrates the potential confusion that can arise when interdependencies among different diversity metrics are ignored. Our findings show the value of species richness as a predictive tool and highlight gaps in knowledge about linkages between functional diversity and ecosystem functioning.

 

Astragalus(Fabaceae), with more than 3000 species, represents a globally successful radiation of morphologically highly similar species predominant across the northern hemisphere. It has attracted attention from systematists and biogeographers, who have asked what factors might be behind the extraordinary diversity of this important arid‐adapted clade and what sets it apart from close relatives with far less species richness.

Here, for the first time using extensive phylogenetic sampling, we asked whether (1)Astragalusis uniquely characterized by bursts of radiation or whether diversification instead is uniform and no different from closely related taxa. Then we tested whether the species diversity ofAstragalusis attributable specifically to its predilection for (2) cold and arid habitats, (3) particular soils, or to (4) chromosome evolution. Finally, we tested (5) whetherAstragalusoriginated in central Asia as proposed and (6) whether niche evolutionary shifts were subsequently associated with the colonization of other continents.

Our results point to the importance of heterogeneity in the diversification ofAstragalus, with upshifts associated with the earliest divergences but not strongly tied to any abiotic factor or biogeographic regionalization tested here. The only potential correlate with diversification we identified was chromosome number. Biogeographic shifts have a strong association with the abiotic environment and highlight the importance of central Asia as a biogeographic gateway.

Our investigation shows the importance of phylogenetic and evolutionary studies of logistically challenging “mega‐radiations.” Our findings reject any simple key innovation behind high diversity and underline the often nuanced, multifactorial processes leading to species‐rich clades.

 

Predicting potential distributions of species in new areas is challenging. Physiological data can improve interpretation of predicted distributions and can be used in directed distribution models. Nonnative species provide useful case studies. Panther chameleons (Furcifer pardalis) are native to Madagascar and have established populations in Florida, USA, but standard correlative distribution modeling predicts no suitable habitat forF. pardalisthere. We evaluated commonly collected thermal traits– thermal performance, tolerance, and preference—ofF. pardalisand the acclimatization potential of these traits during exposure to naturally-occurring environmental conditions in North Central Florida. Though we observed temperature-dependent thermal performance, chameleons maintained similar thermal limits, performance, and preferences across seasons, despite long-term exposure to cool temperatures. Using the physiological data collected, we developed distribution models that varied in restriction: time-dependent exposure near and below critical thermal minima, predicted activity windows, and predicted performance thresholds. Our application of commonly collected physiological data improved interpretations on potential distributions ofF. pardalis, compared with correlative distribution modeling approaches that predicted no suitable area in Florida. These straightforward approaches can be applied to other species with existing physiological data or after brief experiments on a limited number of individuals, as demonstrated here.

 

Humans did not arrive on most of the world’s islands until relatively recently, making islands favorable places for disentangling the timing and magnitude of natural and anthropogenic impacts on species diversity and distributions. Here, we focus onAmazonaparrots in the Caribbean, which have close relationships with humans (e.g., as pets as well as sources of meat and colorful feathers). Caribbean parrots also have substantial fossil and archaeological records that span the Holocene. We leverage this exemplary record to showcase how combining ancient and modern DNA, along with radiometric dating, can shed light on diversification and extinction dynamics and answer long-standing questions about the magnitude of human impacts in the region. Our results reveal a striking loss of parrot diversity, much of which took place during human occupation of the islands. The most widespread species, the Cuban Parrot, exhibits interisland divergences throughout the Pleistocene. Within this radiation, we identified an extinct, genetically distinct lineage that survived on the Turks and Caicos until Indigenous human settlement of the islands. We also found that the narrowly distributed Hispaniolan Parrot had a natural range that once included The Bahamas; it thus became “endemic” to Hispaniola during the late Holocene. The Hispaniolan Parrot also likely was introduced by Indigenous people to Grand Turk and Montserrat, two islands where it is now also extirpated. Our research demonstrates that genetic information spanning paleontological, archaeological, and modern contexts is essential to understand the role of humans in altering the diversity and distribution of biota.

 

Changes in phenology in response to ongoing climate change have been observed in numerous taxa around the world. Differing rates of phenological shifts across trophic levels have led to concerns that ecological interactions may become increasingly decoupled in time, with potential negative consequences for populations. Despite widespread evidence of phenological change and a broad body of supporting theory, large-scale multitaxa evidence for demographic consequences of phenological asynchrony remains elusive. Using data from a continental-scale bird-banding program, we assess the impact of phenological dynamics on avian breeding productivity in 41 species of migratory and resident North American birds breeding in and around forested areas. We find strong evidence for a phenological optimum where breeding productivity decreases in years with both particularly early or late phenology and when breeding occurs early or late relative to local vegetation phenology. Moreover, we demonstrate that landbird breeding phenology did not keep pace with shifts in the timing of vegetation green-up over a recent 18-y period, even though avian breeding phenology has tracked green-up with greater sensitivity than arrival for migratory species. Species whose breeding phenology more closely tracked green-up tend to migrate shorter distances (or are resident over the entire year) and breed earlier in the season. These results showcase the broadest-scale evidence yet of the demographic impacts of phenological change. Future climate change–associated phenological shifts will likely result in a decrease in breeding productivity for most species, given that bird breeding phenology is failing to keep pace with climate change.